Research On Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flow Forecast Based On Integrated Traffic Model With Tianjin Metro-10 As The Case

Urban rail transit has developed rapidly into an important means of transportation for urban public transport with its closed lines,on time operation,convenient and reliable features.The advantages of urban rail transit network operation are obvious,and it has become the main reason for the metros to change their preferred mode of public transportation.This also correlated with rapid passenger growth rate and has been a sustainable trend in recent times.Passenger Flow Forecast,as one of the bases of urban rail transit planning,acts a pivotal part in the city planning process.As Tianjin City Master Plan Amendment has been approved,the content of the old urban rail transit construction plan has been impacted.So it is necessary for its amendment and improvement.Passenger flow forecast plays an important role in all aspects and stages of Tianjin rail transit,which can provide the basis and support for the adjustment of rail transit plan.This thesis introduces the development of rail transit in China and Tianjin,and analyzes the urgency of Tianjin urban rail transit and the importance of passenger flow forecast.It will also cover the main contents and basic methods of passenger flow forecast are discussed,and the theory and practice of domestic and foreign urban rail transit passenger flow prediction are analyzed.On the basis of elaborating the current situation of urban traffic and foreign traffic in Tianjin,the current problems are analyzed.Then Tianjin various types of traffic development goals and plans are proposed.Based on the existing data and data processing,Tianjin integrated traffic model has been built and checked.Passenger flows of both Tianjin rail transit and Tianjin Metro-10 have been forecasted.Based on this analysis,suggestions for future passenger flow forecast have been submitted for future proposals.