Research On Development Risk Assessment Technology Of Nuclear Power Plant

Development projects for Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs)have features of complexity,high professionalism,long development cycle and high cost.Therefore,risk events which have influence on the performance and success of the NPPs in a given limit condition will happen during the development period.NPPs development risk assessment has the ability of identifying the risk,ranking risk based on the risk value and determining the risk treatment strategies through proper methods.Thus,the risk would be controlled and the NPPs development project would go smoothly.Firstly,the risk management system which suits for the NPPs development process was established.The basic flow,input,output and the relation of the risk management processes(risk planning,identifying,evaluation,treatment and monitoring)were defined by this paper.It divided the development process of NPPs into three stages including demonstration,design and experiment and the main content of each stage was introduced.It also defined the intervention time of each risk management process based on the division of the development process.Secondly,the risk identification and evaluation methods which suit for the NPPs development process were studied by this paper.It brought two kinds of risk identification methods including checklist and risk breakdown structure and brought two kinds of risk evaluation methods including risk factor method and technology readiness level(TRL)evaluation method.It studied the common methods of risk identification and evaluation and it also obtained the advantages and disadvantages of each method.Thirdly,the NPPs development risk assessment software was developed and the needs analysis,the overall structural design,main function and main interface were introduced by this paper.The software has an auxiliary assessment computing capabilities and can manage the development risk assessment information.At last,the typical pressurized water reactor coolant system development risks while in its design stage were evaluated as the sample analysis of this paper.Eight risks of this system were identified by using the WBS method and the risk value was quantified by using the risk factor method and the risk treatment strategies were also obtained.This paper also evaluated the technical risks of TWR TP-1.The technology readiness level(TRL)and the risk index value of each TP-1 critical technology were evaluated by using the TRL evaluation method.The development risk management system,the risk identification methods and the risk evaluation methods which established in this paper have strong applicability to the NPPs.It offers the references for the future development projects and will increase the level of the NPPs development risk assessment.