A Study On Key Techonology Of Scientometrics Based On Causality Theory

Scientometrics is a major branch of Science of Science.Through quantitative studies,sicentists make reasonable suggestions on scientific development,to promote progress.The Literature Growth Curve describes development of science to a great extent.And the Index Growth Patternand the Logistic Growth Pattern^[2]are the most famous.However,their inherent shortcomings unable them to fully describe the whole history of literature growth.Value of papers is also a hot topic."Bedrocks"and“milestones"are praises to papers with high value.But these honors are still given by certain famous sicentists now.Thus,strict definitions of“bedrocks"and"milestones"are required.Based on the principle of unity of scientific,disciplines are not independent,but connect with each other.Studying causality among them is helpful to address the imbalances of disciplines.According to Endogenous Economic Growth Theory,progress in science plays a decisive role in economic growth,economic stimulates scientific progress the other way round.Unfortunately,studies on these two are mostly about relevance,not causality.Based on Scientometrics research method and causality theory,this paper studies3 problems through analyzing the 92.3GB Microsoft Academic dataset released and the economic data released by World Bank in 2016.Firstly,this paper studies the law of literature growth based on bibliometrics and finds that Literature Growth Curves of all fields follow Price's law except History.The growth rate of different disciplines differs and varies over time.In addition,the periodicity of science is also discussed.Secondly,the development of Complex Network is studied.This paper finds that late it may start,it develops and prospers quite quickly and its citation distribution follows power law.Besides,"cornerstone paper"and"milestones paper"of complex science are also found.Their impacts are discussed afterwards.Finally,based on Transfer Entropy and Convergent Cross Mapping Method,the dynamic causality among displines is calculated.And conclusions are matched.Causality between science and economy is also studied.It is found that economy affects science much more than the other way around.Furthermore,the economy has a greater impact on several humanities.Environmental Science,Chemistry,History,Geology and Physics affects economy most.