Analysis Of Safety Trend In Civil Aaviation Of China And Comparative Study With Other Countries

Since the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan",China’s Passenger Load Factor and load rate have been at a high level,and civil aviation safety has been a world leading.The occurrence of many incidents every year shows that there are still many hidden dangers in our civil aviation.Analyzing the development rules and trends of civil aviation safety in China can provide guidance for civil aviation safety supervision.This paper analyzed the current situation of the development of domestic civil aviation safety.To conduct in-depth analysis of the safety trends of domestic civil aviation,statistical analysis and time series analysis of transport flight incidents in 2006-2016 were conducted.The X-12 seasonal adjustment multiplicative model was used to decompose the time series,and the decomposed season period components,trend components and random components were analyzed.Combined with the X-12 multiplicative model and the ARIMA combined model,the transport flight incident rates per million hours is forecast.Finally,the indicators of IATA and ICAO safety annual reports were used to be compared with the safety index of China Civil Aviation.This paper selected China and American civil aviation transport flight accident rates per million hours above the level of major,fatality per billion passenger kilometers to represent aviation safety level of this two countries,exponential regression model was used to analyze and predict the safety trends of civil aviation between China and America.The main findings are as follows:1.During 1995 to 2016,China’s civil aviation safety level has been continued to improve continuously.The main reasons for transport flight incidents in 2006-2016 were unexpected,ground support,mechanical and crew reasons;the main types of incidents were bird strikes,foreign objects impact,lightning strikes/electric shocks,engine shutdowns,aircraft collisions.Major flight phases were other or unknown,approach,cruise/work,takeoff,climb,descent,and landing.2.The transport flight monthly incident rates per million hours during 2006 to 2016 shows significant seasonality and trend.The incident data is seasonally affected by the cyclical fluctuations of one-year cycle,September and May are the most affected by the season,December and January are the least affected by the season,and the months when the seasonal cycle factors are upwards(by the rate of change): April> May> October> September> March,the seasonal cycle factors in other months showed a downward trend.The incident data showed a downward trend from 2006 to 2008 and a fluctuating upward trend from 2009 to 2016.Other phases tended to be stable.The forecast results show that the transport flight incident rates per million hours in 2017 was the highest in October,followed by September.3.The safety status of China’s transport flight during 2006 to 2016 is better than the level of civil aviation safety in the world during the same period.During 1985 to 2014,the safety of civil aviation transport flight between China and America continued to improve,and the continuous improvement of China’s civil aviation safety was faster than that of the United States.Judging from current and forecasted,China’s civil aviation transport flight accident rates per million hours above the level of major is lower than America,accident rate status will continue to be maintained.The fatality per billion passenger kilometers in China is higher than fatality per billion passenger kilometers in America and that status will continue to be maintained.In addition,the difficulty of further improving the safety level will also gradually increase.