Research On Collision Risk Based On Position Error Probability Model

With the rapid development,it is urgent to improve the efficiency of airspace.However,whether through the change of the operating mode or the optimization of the airspace structure to increase the operating capacity,the prerequisite must be to ensure the safety of operation.So,the study of collision risk theory has great practical value and economic significance.This paper mainly focuses on the collision risk assessment of the two research objects of the reduced approach radar interval in the Capital Airport and the route intersection.The airport owns three parallel runways at present,and the distance between runway36L/18 R and runway 01/19 is 3485 m,for which dependent parallel instrument approach mode is adopted.This paperstudies the possibility of reducing the radar separation between aircraft that approach with dependent parallel instrument approach mode on runways 36L/18 R and 01/19 to 3485 m from the perspective of safety risk.This paper assesses the collision risk of dependent parallel instrument approach with reduced radar separation of the Capital Airport respectively under the normal condition and special condition.This paper establishes collision risk models based on position error probability and kinematics process.Then,an experiment plan is designed to collect the response time of controllers in emergencies situations.This experiment has been conducted for ten days.After data processing,the values of response time of controllers are obtained.And the actual radar track data of Capital Airport for six months are collected,by analyzing and processing the radar data,the relevant parameters,such as position error and velocity,needed in the calculation of collision risk model are obtained.Finally,simulation by MATLAB.The result of this study shows that,according to the target level of safety announced by ICAO,the minimum radar separation required by the dependent parallel instrument approach on runways 36L/18 R and 01/19 can be reduced to 3.485 km.This paper also studies the collision risk assessment of route intersection.Collision risk area is established at route intersection,and the kinematic process of cross flight and converging flight of two aircraft in the collision risk area are studied.And collision risk model is established based on the classical idea of position error probability.Then,the impact of parameters,such as the size of flow,the flow distribution and the velocity are analyzed withan example.This paper collected flow data of 34 route intersections across the country in a busy day.After simulation by MATLAB,the rank of all-day collision risk is obtained.And this paper,from the perspective of collision risk,give the suggestion about the construction of overpass.