Simulation Of Potential Productivity And Cultivation Measures By Ceres-maize Modle Based On Climatic Factors In Northeast Region Of China

Climate change characterized by global warming and its impacts on nature, economy and human life have become a global common concern of governments, society and the scientific community. IPCC AR5 reported that the last three decades was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years and that further warming was inevitable due to continued emissions of greenhouse. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive systems to climatic change. It has been shown that climate change has significant influence on food production. Northeast China(NEC), where the famous Golden-Maize-Belt of China locates, is situated at relatively high latitude, and its maize production is thus more sensitive to climate change. Therefore, it is of an important theoretical and practical significance in guaranteeing regional food security to assess the climate change impacts on maize production and some adaptation measures in NEC.This study takes Jilin Province in China as an example, use 5 typical research sites, total solar radiation, rainfall, mean temperature, mean maximum and minimum temperature to analysis the meteorological data from 1981-2010 of maize growing season to describe the climate change of Jilin Province in recent 30 years, correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the changes of climate and the length of the two maize growth stages sowing- flowering, flowering- mature. At the same time, the five typical study sites observed meteorological data from 1981 to 2010, soil data, field management information and maize actual yield value, the crop model Ceres maize were five different varieties of maize genetic parameters calibration and different varieties of maize sowing flowering, flowering mature two growth yield per unit length and verification, and after the verification of the model can be used to simulate the response to climate change on maize growth effects of measures. Using RCP4.5 scenario as input data to drive the Had GEM2-ES atmospheric circulation model for the next 30 years climate data, and analysis the 5 sites in Jilin Province in the next 30 years, if the trend of climate change and the 30 years of climate change trends are consistent.The results showed that the simulated values of the length and the yield of the two growth stages of maize sowing- flowering, flowering- maturity were in good agreement with the actual value, the normalized root mean square error was 2.96%, 3.40% and 9.37%, off the index range 10.6%~15.2%, corn light temperature potential production simulation value is 7799.60~12902.83 kg?(hm2)-1, Per 10 a down 128.6~880.3Kg?(hm2)-1; Total solar radiation and precipitation of 5 different research sites downward trend, climate tendency rate respectively as-71.2~-174.7MJ/M2.10 a ?-12.0~-49.9mm/10 a; the temperature is rising, average maximum and minimum temperature climate tendency rate respectively as 0.54~0.72°C?0.60~1.07°C; The correlation analysis showed that the main factor that affected the temperature production potential of Maize in this area was climate change, the growth period and the decrease of the total amount of solar radiation caused by the increase of temperature during the growing period of maize. The main measures taken to deal with the characteristics of climate change are to improve the heat tolerance of maize varieties and to delay the sowing date of maize, improve the production potential of light and temperature. The result of control of simulation parameters show that, the production potential of maize light temperature increased linearly with the increase of P5 value of sensitive parameters, P5 values increased by 10°C?d, corn light temperature production potential increase 154.44~261.10 Kg?(hm2)-1, that is to say, the heat resistance of the maize varieties could increase the yield of maize effectively; In addition to Meihekou, Liaoyuan, Dunhua site in maize sowing date postponed for 5 days, light and temperature are the largest increase in the production potential, respectively as 0.47%?1.32%; Huadian, yushu site in the maize sowing date postponed for 15 days, light and temperature are the largest increase in the production potential, respectively as 1.10%?4.06%. In the next 30 years, the climate change trend of maize growing season is consistent with that of 1981-2010, it can be seen that there is a certain representative of maize production in 1981-2010, the measure of simulation can be used in the production of corn in the future.