Impacts Of Agricultural Meteorological Disasters On Yield Production And Risk Assessment

Under the background of global climate change,the impact of meteorological disaster on food security has been a concern,a wide range of agricultural meteorological disasters such as drought,chilling injury,is an important factor affecting a large area of food production.In order to explore the effect of agricultural meteorological disasters on yield production,using a variety of statistical methods,analyze the change of time series of various agricultural meteorological disasters and food production,and choose drought and flood disaster as the research object because of their high proportion in different disasters.Analyze the aggregated distribution characteristics in four severest years during the study period of drought and flood disasters and food production using spatial autocorrelation method.Analyze the precipitation and relative meteorological yield production of North China and Jianghuai region using empirical orthogonal decomposition.Finally,analyze the coupled related model between precipitation and grain yield using singular value decomposition method and from temporal and spatial aspects.The innovation of this paper is that the relative meteorological yield is introduced into the statistical analysis of the climate as a variable field,and combined with the meteorological field.Through the EOF decomposition,the precipitation mode in North China and Jianghuai region have same pattern in the first two eigenvectors,that is whole-region consistent and south-north seesaw.But the third eigenvectors of North China and Jianghuai region is different while east-weat in North China and three poles mode in Jianghuai.Through coupling modes of SVD decomposition,we think that the reduction of grain yield is more related to flood disaster.