Prediction Model Design And Application Of Anhui Rice Disease Monitoring And Warning System

China is an agricultural country,and rice is one of the main food crops,with planting area about 25% of the country's arable land.The amount of rice farmers occupies about 50% of the total farmers and the rice production capacity occupies nearly half of the total grain production.More than 60% people mainly eat rice food in the country.But rice disease has the serious influence of rice production.Rice diseases and pests influence 1.45 billion mus every year,occupying 30.5% of the total rice planting area;the annual production loss of rice is 30 billion kilograms,occupying 1/2 of the total losses of grain.Diseases and pests of rice have the obvious rising trend.Diseases and pests is one of the main obstacles which restrict the yield and quality of rice.Agricultural production in China is lack of the guidance of plant protection experts and agricultural technicians.Along with the development of rural informational process,modern information technology has become one of the effective methods to provide remote diagnosis and consult of crop diseases.The rice disease prediction model is based on Case-Based Reasoning(CBR)theory to solve new problems through reuse or modify old solutions.The rice diseases and pests monitoring system is developed using Visual Studio 2008 as development platform,C # as development language,SQL Server 2005 as database system,guided by the software engineering method.Through the Browser/Server mode(B/S),users can obtain detailed disease information in time.The monitoring system has the following main features:1,Dynamics.Data of plant diseases and insect pests display through curves,lists and maps,helping farmers to master the situation of plant diseases and insect pests.2,Data reporting.Reporting data include daily,weekly and annual data.Plant Protection Center receives the data and submits to the data resources.3,Data query.View the submitted daily,weekly report or annual report data.4,Prediction.Predict the plant diseases and insect pests occurrence using a variety of models.5,Announce.Browse system messages or send personal questions through the network platform.6,Remote diagnosis.Diagnose disease through images through network and remote mobile client.The data extraction of diseases and pests has good feasibility,and the system has expressing,consulting,communicating and other functions.By using various data express format,such as graph and table,the system is applicable to different objects.The input of external influence factors,such as disease(pest)resistance,fertilizer level,basic amount of bacteria,crop growth period,can be modified according local situation.The prediction can forecasts repeatedly at any point.The online communication platform supplies discussion and communication for difficult problems among organizations and farmers in multi-levels.The system has been uploaded and tested on the web.The system website is: http://ahzb.ahau.edu.cn.It can run steadily and reliably,and can monitor and diagnosis properly,which reaches the requirement of the design.Since the formal operation of the system,no crash or data loss occurred,showing that the system can run steadily for a long time.