Forecasting Model About Wheat Fusarium Ear Blight Based On Meteorology Factors In Central China

In this thesis,the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of wheat fusarium ear blight was analyzed.We proposed two sets of new models of FEB prediction,which is based on ten years of disease and weather data available for ten locations in Anhui and Hubei province in China.So as to provide reference for the occurrence and epidemic of FEB.In the first chapter,we introduce the background of FEB,the research progress of forecasting model at home and abroad,and the methods used in establishing model.In the second chapter,according to ten years of disease and weather data available for ten locations in Anhui and Hubei province,a stepwise regression model containing the meteorological factor cross term was established during the period of two months before and after the anthesis period.The results showed that the three meteorological factors,such as temperature,rainfall and wind speed were closely related to the occurrence of scab,and the epidemic trend of FEB was positive.In the third chapter,according to Anhui and Hubei province's six regions ranging from three to ten years of wheat scab data and weather data.A multivariate linear stepwise regression model with meteorological factors was established in the six regions of their respective during the period of two months before and after the anthesis period.The results showed that the occurrence of scab would be inhibited when the temperature was higher than 26 degrees and less than 9,and the persistent rainfall and relatively high humidity are important factors affecting the occurrence and prevalence of scab.Through the validation,the model can effectively predict the development trend of scab.In the last chapter,we make a brief review of the above conclusion,and present the epidemic dynamic point of view and practical meaning for these models.And we analyze some shortcomings of this thesis and point out some questions and future work.