| Hand foot mouth disease(HFMD)is ranking first of legal report C class infectious diseases in our country.Since 2008,the number of cases in the country is more than 1 million every year.and more than 2 million 700 thousand cases in 2014.HFMD mainly in children under 5 years in our country,1-3 age group is prone to severe and critically cases,it has a serious impact on children’s physical and mental health,and has brought huge economic burden to families and society.As a result of the pathogens are varied,transmission is complex,easy to cause a wide range of popularity in a short time,we need to take targeted measures to prevent and control.Objective:This study aims to describe the incidence of HFMD from 2011 to 2015 in Changchun,to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD,dominant and pathogen composition of EV71 and Cox A16;strain model to forecast the incidence and verified witn the incidence data of 2016,so as to provide reference material for the prevention and control in the future.Methods:In this study,we collected the epidemiological surveillance data of HFMD from 2011 to 2015 in Changchun,and used the method of descriptive epidemiology to analysis of the time,space and population distribution of the overall epidemic and severe cases,Mapinfo 9.5 software was used to describe the regional incidence of HFMD in different years,and to find out the epidemic characteristics of different times,regions and populations of HFMD;Etiological data were processed by Excel 2016 software,descriptive analysis on the distribution of pathogenic composition.The ARIMA seasonal product model was established by R software to predict the short-term incidence trends from January to July in 2016.SPSS 18 software was used for statistical analysis,enumeration data compared with rate or constituent ratio,comparison between groups was used Chi-square test,using a uniform inspection level same with stationary test and residual test in time series analysis,α was 0.05.Results:1、A total of 11339 cases of hand foot mouth disease were reported in Changchun during 2011-2015,with annual incidence rate of 29.56/100000,severe cases in 291 cases and death in 3 cases.The incidence of each year showed obvious seasonal characteristics and the peak appeared in July;high incidence areas concentrated in the southwest,other regions have different degrees of dissemination,urban areas was higher than rural areas;epidemic cases were concentrated in aged 0-5 years(93.43%),male and female incidence ratio was 1.48:1,most of them are scattered children(79.88%).2、There were 291 severe cases during this five years from 2011 to 2015,the incidence rate was 0.76/100000,most severe cases focus in 2014,a total of 133 cases,the incidence rate was 1.73/100000.The characteristics of time distribution are consistent with the whole epidemic situation,which is characterized by typical seasonal feature and the fastigium is July.Counties severe cases(175 cases)were remakable higher than urban(116 cases)in five years.From the crowd distribution,male were higher than female,and the incidence ratio was 1.69:1;severe cases were concentrated in the 1-3 age group(244 cases),the scattered children(243 cases)had become the main group of severe cases.3、The etiology results showed that 2113 cases of HFMD were detected in Changchun Center for Disease Control and Prevention laboratory,accounting for 18.63% of the reported cases,and 1342 positive specimens,and the positive rate was 63.51% during the period of 2011-2015.The pathogen constitute was mainly EV71(43.00%),followed by Cox A16(39.94%),and the other enterovirus(17.06%)was the least,and it showed increasing trend.There was no significant difference in type of enterovirus infection on gender(c 2=5.605,P=0.061),but there was a significant difference on age(c 2=52.526,P<0.001)and the different cases type(c 2=148.511,P<0.001).The etiology composition of severe cases was mainly EV71.4、Time series analysis results showed that ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 is the best model to predict the short-term trend,the forecast incidence was consistent with the actual incidence in principle,and the actual incidence of 1-7 months was within the range of 95% confidence fiducial interval range.Conclusions:1、The time distribution of HFMD in Changchun showed there was a seasonal characteristic and concentrated in 6-8 months;The distribution of urban was higher than the countries,areas with high incidence were concentrated in automobile zones and high-tech zones;Distribution of the crowd was the scattered children,concentrated in the age of 0-5years old,boys were more than girls.2、The distribution of severe cases is consistent with the overall epidemic situation with a seasonal characteristics;Morbidity crowd was scattered children with 1-3 years old,boys were more than girls;the total number of cases reported in county districts was higher than urba.3、The etiology of HFMD in Changchun was EV71 from 2011 to 2015,followed by Cox A16,the proportion of other enteroviruses was the least,but it showed an increasing trend.4、The ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 model could predict the short-term development trend of HFMD with monthly incidence data from 2011 to 2015. |
PDF Full Text Request