Surveillance Report Of HIV/AIDS High Risk Group In Urumqi And HIV Epidemic Situation Forecast

Objective:To understand the demographic characteristics,sexual behaviors and the factors associated with HIV infection in drug users,men who have sex with men and female sex workers in Urumqi.Forecast the epidemic trend of AIDS from 2017 to 2019 by using the HIV infection rate of the corresponding population in Urumqi from 2009 to2016.Methods: According to the“National AIDS Sentinel Surveillance Protocol”,the data of drug users,men who have sex with men and female sex workers demographic characteristics and sex behavior histories detection results were collected through Urumqi AIDS sentinel surveillance system during 2009-2016.Using multivariate logistic regression analyze the influencing factors of HIV infection.According to the AIDS epidemic monitoring data of Urumqi city in 2009-2016,established ARIMA model of drug user,MSM and female sex workers and predict the 2017-2019 infection rate of HIV.Results:1.The HIV infection rate of drug user was 16.51%.The proportion of injecting drug use was 75.30%.The proportion of sharing needles was about 23.62%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Uygur and other minority nationalities(OR(28)6.76,95% CI: 3.48~13.11;OR(28)2.96,95% CI: 1.27~6.87),30~40 years(OR(28)2.34,95% CI:1.42~3.85),high average daily injection drug use(OR(28)2.34,95%CI:1.34~4.10),Shared needle(OR(28)5.63,95% CI:3.76~8.43)were risk factors of HIV.2.The HIV infection rate of MSM was 6.62%.Anal sex condom use was 44%.The commercial sex was 5.66% and condom use was 89.64%.The heterosexual behavior was 9.48% and condom use was56.66%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Uygur(OR(28)1.85,95%CI:1.27~2.68)and >40 years(OR(28)1.63,95%CI:1.16~2.31)were risk factors of HIV.3.The HIV infection rate of female sex worker was 0.47%.The most recent condom use was89.49%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that divorced or widowed(OR =3.00,95% CI :1.26~7.15)were risk factors of HIV.;Low risk of HIV infection in junior college,high school or secondary school,college and above,relative to primary and below educational level.4.The ARIMA model(2,1,0)of drug user predict 2017-2019 HIV infection rate is 7.68%,6.45%,5.94%,respectively,decreased year by year.The ARIMA model(3,0,0)of MSM predict 2017-2019 HIV infection rate is 10.13%,5.48%,6.34%,respectively.The ARIMA model(1,0,0)of female sex workers predict 2017-2019 HIV infection rate is 0.35%,0.39%,0.41%,respectively,increased year by year.Conclusion:The high risk factors of population at high risk for HIV infection in Urumqi city are widespread.This city should further strengthen intervention measures and strategies targeted for three types of high-risk population.The time series ARIMA model can simulate the change tendency of HIV infection rate in time series,which can provide the basis for the health department to control AIDS and to develop AIDS prevention strategies and interventions.