| Purpose: The study starts with the hospitalization expense of the gallbladder stone with chronic cholecystitis patients before and after cancel drugs addition policy,Analyze the composition and influencing factors of hospitalization expenses and identifies the unreasonable part of the cost structure,then forecast the hospitalization expenses and find out the reason,analysis the change of the hospitalization expense basis of the existing policy,comprehensive evaluation the public hospital reform effect of Shenzhen,thus providing ideas to further deepen the reform of the mode of payment and feasible Suggestions.Methods: According to the standard International Classification of Diseases(ICD-10)and choose three municipal general hospital in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2015 of 4095 cases of hospitalized patients with gallbladder stones with chronic cholecystitis as the research object.And using descriptive analysis,single factor analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis method,to analysis hospitalization cost composition and influence factors before and after cancel the drug addition.Finally using the GM(1,1)grey forecasting model to predict analysis the average hospitalization expenses and the higher costs of the hospitalization expenses.Results:(1)Before the cancel drugs addition policy term,the average hospitalization cost was 11834.59±6333.14 yuan,medicine accounted was 23.41%;After the cancel drugs addition policy term,the average hospitalization cost was 13462.37 ± 7230.58 yuan,medicine accounted was 21.82%.The average hospitalization cost,beds fee,inspection fee,operation expenses and material cost between the two groups has statistically significant difference.The average medicine expenses,nurse fee,anesthesia fee between the two groups have no statistically significant difference.(2)The singlefactor analysis and multiple linear regression results show that ages,hospitalization days,medicine proportion,blood transfusion and hospitalization times were the affect factors after the cancel drugs addition policy.(3)The consumables GM(1,1)grey prediction results show that the growth rate of average hospitalization costs,medicine expenses,surgery costs would be slower,but the growth of material fee would be faster until 2020.If we had no intervened to the material fee,it would be the main part of the cost of hospitalization.Conclusion:(1)After cancel the drugs addition policy,hospitalization expenses still appeared a certain degree of growth,but the medicine expenses got a very good control,the proportion of the material fee and the diagnosis fee had a big increasing,The cost of reflecting health care knowledge level and technical service had a growth in a certain extent,but the proportion is still low.(2)The influence factors of hospitalization expenses is roughly same before and after cancel drugs addition policy,We should control hospitalization expenses of growth from the hospitalization days,medicine proportion,payment type,blood transfusion and hospitalization times.(3)According to the result of prediction model shows that,under the condition of existing policies,hospitalization expenses will increase in the further,the material fee with the greatest growth,and we should pay more attention in the process of policy making in the future.Suggestion: We should do our best to strengthen the control of medicine and material.Improve the Doctors and nurses service value;to reform of public hospitals,give play to the role of medical insurance;to carry out Hierarchical Diagnosis and Treatment Mechanism and do more to multi-sited license for the doctors. |