The Study On The Prediction Model Of Overweight And Obesity Of Primary And Secondary School Students Based On Decision Tree Method In Tianjin

Objective:This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and distribution of overweight and obesity among 9-18 year old students in Tianjin.The decision tree model of overweight and obesity prediction of primary and middle school students in different ages was established and the modeling performance was evaluated.,to provide reference for the effective prevention of children and adolescents in Tianjin overweight and obesity.Methods:The research object of this study comes from the 2014 national students' physical and health survey.According to the requirements of the national students' physical and health survey,using stratified random cluster sampling method,9 ~ 18 years old students with a total of 5738.Physical examination was performed by the professional staff of the primary and middle school students.The questionnaire was compiled by the National Student Physical and Health Research Group,and its physical examination data corresponding to the questionnaire.Body mass index(BMI)is a value derived from the weight and height of an individual.SPSS 16.0 was used for the analyses.Data were expressed as mean for the normal distributions.Chi-square or Fisher's exact test was used to compare the categorical variables.Independent-samples t test was applied to compare continuous variables between the two groups.The difference was considered statistically significant using P<0.05 as basis.Decision tree analysis were used to establish the model of overweight and obesity of 9-12 years old,13-15 years old and 16-18 years old students.And the prediction effect of each model was evaluated by plotting the ROC curve.Results:1.In this study,the rate of overweight and obesity in primary and secondary school students aged 9 ~ 18 in Tianjin was 32.80%,and overweight rate and obesity rate were 16.92% and 15.88% respectively.2.Overweight and obese distribution between urban and rural areas: The detection rate of overweight among urban students,rural students were 18.74%,15.00%,respectively,urban areas was higher than rural areas(X~2=14.270,P<0.001);the detection rates of obesity were 18.23% and 13.38%,respectively,and the urban areas were higher than those of rural areas(X~2=25.218,P<0.001).3.Sex distribution of overweight and obesity: The detection rate of obesity among boys and girls was 19.32% and 14.54%,respectively,boys are higher than girls(X~2=23.403,P<0.001).The detection rate of obesity among boys and girls was 21.08% and 10.72%(X~2=115.202,P<0.001),respectively.Conclusions:1.The current situation of overweight and obesity of primary and secondary school students aged 9 ~ 18 in Tianjin is serious.According to the evaluation of obesity grading in European scholars,obesity rating has reached grade ? level.It is imperative to control the practice of obesity in children and adolescents.2.The rate of overweight and obesity of urban students was higher than that of rural students.The overweight rate and obesity rate of boys were higher than girls.3.The scientific cognition of self body shape is the key factor of overweight and obesity.Scientific guidance should be taken to form the correct self cognition of children and adolescents,so as to effectively prevent the occurrence of overweight or obesity.4.The decision tree model can screen out the high risk groups of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents,through targeted intervention measures,and to provide the basis for effective prevention and control of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents in Tianjin.