Time Series Analysis Of Emergency Department Of Neurological Department In A Top Three Hospital

Objective:Using the Neurology emergency visits those are from the first hospital of Shanxi Medical University to review the regularity and explore the development trend,applicating the time series analysis method for the prediction model is established,and provide a reliable theoretical basis for hospital management decision.Methods:It has been counted that The first hospital of Shanxi Medical University from January2010 to December 2014 statistics of Neurology emergency visits data and the analysis of the characteristics of peak time,seasonal regularity and trend of annual visits.Not only the time series model was established,but also the emergency data in 2015 were predicted.Results:Finally,the SARIMA(1,1,1)×(1,1,1)12 is the prediction model,the specific form is:(1-1.055390B12)(1-0.849107B)(1-B)(1-B12)Zt =(1 + 0.606245B)(1 + 0.853169B12).24-hour rhythm: ①1,2,3 months and 11,12 months early 7-8 when the patient began to increase,the rest of the month for 6-7;② the first peak in the 9-11 treatment,the second peak Appeared in the 19-22 hours;③early morning peak in the lower temperature of the month appears at 3-4,the relative warm month for 4-5.Seasonal rule: ①the lowest number of visits in February;② the two peak visits in the year are 3-May and 8-10 months;③2013 attendance curve fluctuations.Conclusion:SARIMA model is expected to be effective in short-term predictions and extended to clinical subjects.The number of emergency medical personnel in our hospital will maintain an annual growth rate of 2-4% in recent years.The hospital should expand the emergency room area Clinic environment.From the 24-hour rhythm and seasonal rules to see:neurological emergency visits by meteorological factors and life eating habits greater impact;Shan Da Hospital emergency nursing staff shift system is basically reasonable.