| Objective:To provide data support for prevention and control of bacillary dysentery through the analysis of its epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics in Jilin Province from 2012 to 2016,and to provide scientific support for effective prevention and control measures and strengthening the optimal allocation of public health resources.Methods:8627 cases of bacillary dysentery reported by the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System in 2012-2016 in Jilin were collected,Data were recorded,sorted and analyzed using Excel 2007 and SPSS 18.0 software,to describe the time,spatial and population distribution.Using ArcGIS10.2 software for the spatial autocorrelation analysis and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to analyze the incidence of bacillary dysentery in different years and seasons;the spatial clustering of bacillary dysentery was revealed by extracting the hotspot region and cold spot area.Results:1.The cumulative incidence of bacillary dysentery was 8,627 and 1 death in Jilin Province from 2012 to 2016,with an average annual incidence of6.27/100,000.The incidence of nearly 5 years is:11.68/100,000 in 2012,7.60/100,000 in 2013,5.35/100,000 in 2014,3.74/100,000 in 2015,3.00/100,000 in2016.The incidence of bacillary dysentery has been declining year by year from2012 to 2016,and has reported each month for the whole year,incidence trends are basically the same in each year,the occurrence of disease showed a single peak distribution,the number of cases began to rise in May,peaking in July,and began to decrease after September,except the peaks appeared in June 2015,other annual peaks appeared in July,namely 26th and 30th weeks;Under five years old age group was high-risk groups,especially those children under one year old.The difference in bacillary dysentery among different age groups was statistically significant in the group under 5 years(χ~2=41.11,P<0.01);There were 4,937 male cases,3,690 cases of female.The sex ratio of male and female was 1.34:1.The number of reported cases in the top ten occupations was:scattered children,farmers,housework and unemployed people,students,former staff,childcare children,workers,other professions,the cadre staff,commercial service personnel;The annual average incidence among the three areas were:Jilin city area,Tonghua area,and Baicheng area;The top five counties was:Gaoxin zone,Erdaojiang zone,Ji’an city,Qiche zone,and Chuanying zone;Higher incidence of area were concentrated in Changchun,Jilin and Tonghua area.2.In the analysis of the spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery incidence,Moran I index and Getis-Ord General G index for bacillary dysentery incidence levels presented significant gathered phenomenon in 2012;In the analysis of 2014,2015 and 2016,Moran I index and Getis-Ord General G index all did not reach statistical significance,namely the disease present spatial random distribution,was no high and(or)low values gathered phenomenon;In the overall analysis of the2012-2016,2013 and 2012-2016 quarters of the year,Moran I index analysis results showed that the incidence of bacillary dysentery has high and(or)low values gathered phenomenon,but the Getis-Ord General G index has made no statistical significance,unable to refuse the null hypothesis,namely,there was no clustering phenomenon in the spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery in Jilin Province during the above period.3.In the geographical distribution of bacillary dysentery in Jilin Province in2012-2016 each years and each quarter,local autocorrelation hot spot analysis(Getis-Ord Gi*)index analysis results showed that the 3 hot disease areas:they were located in the middle(2 areas)and the south(1 area)of Jilin province,showing the onset of 1 cold spot area,located in the midwest of Jilin Province.Clustering and outlier analysis(Anselin Local Moran I)index analysis results showed1 high-high cluster(HH)area,located in the middle of Jilin Province,also showed 1high-low outlier(HL)area,also located in the middle of Jilin Province.Conclusions:1.The incidence of bacillary dysentery decreased year by year from 2012 to 2016in Jilin province.The distribution of time is obviously seasonal.The high incidence of bacillary dysentery is summer,reached the peak in July.We should pay attention to the dispersion children under the age of 5.The incidence of men was higher than women.The incidence of areas was higher in Jilin,Tonghua and Changchun area.2.Thebacillary dysentery incidence levels presented high value gathered phenomenon in 2012 of Jilin Province and the other tiame period namely the disease present spatial random distribution.3.In the geographical distribution of bacillary dysentery in Jilin Province in each year and each quarter,the hot pot disease areas were concentrated in the middle and the south of Jilin province,the high-high cluster county was a few city of Jilin City,high-low outlier county was Gaoxin zone of Changchun City,We should pay attention to these areas may be a relatively weak for the prevention and control of bacillary dysentery. |
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