Research About The Impact Of Meteorological Condition And Air Pollution On Respiratory And Circulatory Diseases And Their Prediction In Zunyi,China

With the increasingly prominent climate change and air pollution problems,researches on their negative effects on human health have become a hotspot in the medical meteorology field.Based on the fact that the"Healthy China 2030"strategy calling for the prevention of disease and the current assessments of adverse health effects in regions with relatively mild climate or relatively less air pollution were still absent,so Zunyi City was selected as the research target area in this paper.In this paper,the disease data（2012²016）,meteorological observation data（1965²016）and air pollution data（2014²016）were used to investigate the characteristics of the weather-sensitive diseases,climate change,and air pollution in Zunyi City,as well as the correlation between them and the morbidity risk prediction.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）According to the results,the high-risk populations of respiratory diseases mainly aged from 0 to 12 years old and over 56-year-old,because the respiratory system of these two groups is not perfect or body physical function is declining,and patients with high incidence of circulatory diseases were mainly those aged over 56years old.From the seasonal distribution results,the winter and spring are the high incidence periods of respiratory diseases in Zunyi City,while in most northern cities the high incidence periods are autumn and winter.The period of high incidence of circulatory diseases is mainly in the spring,especially in the months of alternate seasons（May and October）.In one word,the characteristics of respiratory diseases in Zunyi City are mainly affected by climate effects,and the influence of weather effects are supplemented;while the characteristics of circulatory system diseases are mainly affected by weather effects.From the distribution of the 24 solar terms,the first peak incidence of respiratory diseases occurred during the period from Heavy Snow to Lesser Cold in the winter season,and the sub-peak appeared during the Rain Water to the Waking of Insects.In the late summer from the Beginning of Autumn to the End of Heat,the number of people suffering from respiratory diseases was the least,indicating that local climate conditions have a health-care effect on patients with respiratory diseases during this time period.The peak incidence of circulatory system disease occurred during the period from Rain Water to Great Heat,and the number of patients after the Beginning of Winter was least,meaning the local winter has climatic healing effect on patients with circulatory disease.It is worth noting that period of the Beginning of Summer to the Beginning of Winter was the peak time of cerebrovascular disease,so it is mainly spring and winter that its health care effect is better.（2）The climate change in Zunyi City showed a trend of warming and drying,meaning that the degree of human comfort was gradually increasing.The effects of temperature on respiratory and circulatory system diseases were mainly include low-temperature hysteresis and high-temperature immediate effects;The influences of air pressure and relative humidity on respiratory diseases were mainly lag effects of high pressure or low humidity,respectively,and appropriate wind speeds were favorable to respiratory diseases.The effect of pressure on the circulatory system diseases is mainly the immediate effect of low pressure,but there was also a certain high pressure lag effect on the incidence of heart disease.Higher temperatures in the summer half year were more likely to cause cerebrovascular disease,and hypothermia in winter has a significant effect on the incidence of heart disease.High（low）human sensible temperature had immediate（hysteresis）effects on the respiratory and circulatory system diseases,and the two types of meteorologicaly sensitive diseases were more affected by heat and cold forcing.Upper respiratory tract infections were significantly affected by both the effects of cold and heat stress,while lower respiratory tract infections were mainly affected by low sensible temperature,and cerebrovascular disease was significantly affected by high sensible temperature,requiring attention.（3）The good air quality rate in Zunyi City was relatively higher,and the heavier polluted weather mainly occurs in January in winter.The representative pollutants were PM_2.5.5 and PM₁₀,and in winter it is easier to form moderately or heavily polluted weather when the southerly wind appearing,with warmer temperature,lower humidity and no precipitation.Under the most sensitive hysteresis days(PM_2.5,SO₂,and NO₂ all lagged zero days,CO lagged 04 days),the curve between PM_2.5.5 and the incidence of respiratory diseases showed a monotonous linear distribution,while the others were obvious showing a clear“J type”distribution.The pollution factors showed obvious lagging effect on the circulatory diseases in Zunyi City,and the exposure-response relationship between circulatory system diseases and AQI index or CO showed a“J type”distribution,and those of PM_2.5.5 and NO₂ showed a monotonous linear distribution.（4）The synergy analysis found that:the synergistic effect of low temperature and low humidity had a significant effect on the respiratory and circulatory diseases in Zunyi City,and the synergistic effects between PM_2.5.5 with SO₂ or NO₂multi-pollutants showed high concentration effects,and respiratory diseases patients younger than 12 years old or over 56 years old were the most sensitive population;the synergy effects between low temperature with high concentration of NO₂ or low humidity with high concentrations of SO₂ both had significant impact on the respiratory and circulatory system diseases in Zunyi City.In particular,heart disease in Zunyi City was the highest in high temperature and high humidity conditions.（5）The incidence risk forecast study showed that:although the time series forecast model was slightly better than the multiple stepwise regression forecast model,the latter was more practical for business applications.As for the multivariate stepwise regression model,except for summer,the accuracy of the seasonal prediction test for the number of respiratory diseases was over 75%,and the prediction effect was better than the annual average.The prediction results of the circulatory system disease’s summer and winter prediction equation were the worst,and the seasonal prediction equations of heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were better than those of the whole year.The prediction accuracy of the hypertension prediction equations was very low in spring and winter,but the forecast results of autumn and summer equations were better than the annual equation.Based on the above research,it is proposed to establish a set of meteorological,air pollution and medical data bases and disease number forecasting system for better providing services such as medical weather data query and disease prevention.This can not only provide scientific reference for better coping with climate change and air pollution,and to supplement the current areas of medical meteorology research,but also it would have important practical significance for future medical weather forecast services in cities.