Research On The Method Of Technology Forecasting For Armaments Based On The Combining Of Delphi Survey And Mapping Knowledge Domains

In today's the third time wave of technological revolution era, in the face of the face of opportunities and challenges, all levels of social class, such as the enterprise,institute, country, see technology forecast as a powerful tool to seize the opportunities and meet the challenges. Nowadays, the popular technology forecasting methods are qualitative, mainly dominated by the method of the Delphi investigation, however, these methods have inevitably subjective and qualitative defects. In order to overcome the defects, this paper introduces the knowledge map method, quantitatively and objectively forecast technology.Based on the analysis of the current study on the development status of technology forecasting, we detailedly analyze the features and limitations of the current technology forecasting's tool, especially the most popular tool---the Delphi expert investigation method. In the future, the development direction of technology forecasting is that using more comprehensive integration method can achieve ideal goal. We apply the method of mapping knowledge domain(MKD) to the technology forecasting(TF), and then discuss the feasibility of using MKD in TF, and establish the model of TF based on MKD, then verify the practicality of the model by the UAV sample.This paper studies the use of the Mapping Knowledge Domains method in the technology forecasting process, the contents are as the following:1. Discussing and analyzing the feasibility of using the Mapping Knowledge Domains method to predicate the technology.2. Comparing to the process of the technology forecasting tool based on the Delphi investigation method, we establish a new process of the technology forecasting model based on the Mapping Knowledge Domains method.3. In the case of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV), this paper examines the availability of the process of the technology forecasting model based on the Mapping Knowledge Domains method by means of confirming the technology list, selecting the experts, analyzing the technology evolution route, the research institutions and other aspects.4. At last, the author summaries the full content, then discusses the prediction the limitation of the MKD method and the further research's direction, and talks about the experience in the process of writing this paper.