What Led To Democratic Party's Midterm Election Loss In 2014

The midterm election loss has long been one of the most striking features in American politics.The president's party almost always loses votes in congressional midterm elections.From 1842 to 2014,in the 44 midterm congressional elections,the president's party has lost seats in 41,the exception being 1934,1998,and 2002.Many theories have been proposed to explain midterm election loss,such as the surge and decline theory,the referendum theory,the negative voting theory and so on.In 2010 and 2014,Obama lost two midterm elections in a row,which seems normal,given the tradition of midterm election loss of the president's party.However,what is abnormal is that in 2014 Obama lost both House and Senate,suffering two terrible midterms in a row.The Republicans gained control of the Senate for the first time since 2006,and increased their majority in the House.This paper seeks to explore what led to Democrats,midterm election loss in 2014.According to theories under the president penalty category,this paper chooses three major factors that influence the outcome of midterm election:(1)economic conditions;(2)president's approval rating;(3)voter turnout.With analysis on both national and state level,this paper finds that economic conditions and major policies of Obama administration influence Obama's job approval ratings.Negative assessment of Obama's performance,together with an unfavorable voter turnout in midterm gave rise to Democrats,seat loss.Meanwhile,statistics show that the two major factors were correlated.Obama's low popularity was in accordance with the change of voter turnout,which echoes Kernell's negative voting explanation.In addition,analysis on state level shows that the two parties' campaign strategies also played a role in their midterm loss.