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The Research And Application Of The Crowd Density Analysis And Risk Early Warning Of Stampedes Occurred In Open Public Places

Posted on:2018-03-30Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:M F CaiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2346330536484210Subject:Emergency management professional
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In recent years,stampede accidents occur frequently.Therefore,it is necessary to study the risk early warning technology and mechanism which is suitable for the stampede accident in open public places.First of all,this paper studies the alarming situation,alarming resources,alarming sign and the alarming intensities of the stampedes occurred in open public places which based on the theory of risk early warning and safety system engineering.In the part of the alarming situation,this paper points out the risk characteristics of the stampedes occurred in open public places through statistical analysis of domestic and international stampede case.In the part of alarming resources,using the method of fish bone diagram analysis,this paper analyzes the risk factors of the accidental risk of the open public places during the incubation period,the development period,the outbreak period and the weak period.In the part of alarming sign,using the fault tree analysis method to build the fault tree of the accidental risk of the open public places,and confirm the key early warning indicators,that is,crowd density;In the part of alarming intensities,Through the analysis of a large number of literature to determine the early warning intervala.Secondly,this paper collates four kinds of personnel counting methods and three kinds of crowd density analysis early waming methods,and compares the applicability of the method according to the characteristics and movement rules of the crowd in open public places.In the case,this paper use the location big data to to analyze the crowd situation of the Bund area in Shanghai on December 31,2016.Then Simulation software,Building Exodus,is used to simulate the effectiveness of the early warning method.In the end of this paper,by comparing the different approaches taken by Shanghai government in the high density population condition on December 31,2014 and December 31,2016,the paper puts forward the countermeasures to prevent the stampede occurring in the opening public places.At the same time,by summarizing a large number of stampede contingency plans,this paper designed the open public places stampede "1234" early warning mechanism.This paper analyzes the risk characteristics of the stampede in open public places,determines its early warning indicators,presents the relevant early warning technology,summarizes the accident prevention measures and designs the early warning mechanism of the accident,and provides an idea of the stampede prevention of the opening public places.
Keywords/Search Tags:risk early warning, stampede, open public places, crowd density analysis method
PDF Full Text Request
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