Since twentieth Century,urban contraction has become a phenomenon affecting the whole world,especially in developed countries such as Europe and America.Exploring the development process of Chinese shrinkage phenomenon in the city based on international city shrinkage phenomenon has important significance.Study on the shrinkage of the resource exhausted city is one of the important fields of domestic research on shrinkage of city,provide constructive suggestions on the development of planning results for other resource-based city,has important significance in resource exhausted city sustainable development.With the depletion of forest resources,the population,economy,society and many other aspects of the phenomenon is shrinking.Therefore,this paper selects Yichun City,a typical city of forestry resources depletion,as the research object,in order to put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the shrinkage of Yichun,and provide the decision-making basis for the development of other resource exhausted cities.This research includes 15 districts of Yichun City,and the main data comes from the fifth and sixth census data in 2000 and 2010,and the social and economic statistical yearbook of the corresponding year.In this paper,the total population change rate as the evaluation index of city based on the shrinkage,shrinkage of the establishment and construction of factor BP neural network model,analysis of factors influencing the development of Yichun City,the shrinkage from the population,economy and society of different angles and different areas of Yichun port development trend forecast,by analyzing the domestic and foreign forestry resource exhausted city development experience and forestry resource exhausted city contraction mechanism,put forward corresponding countermeasures of contraction.This paper is divided into six parts.The main contents are as follows:(1)First,in the first chapter,it expounds the background of the topic,the purpose and significance of the study,and analyzes and explains why choosing the shrinking city as the research topic and why the city of Yichun is located.Secondly,it expounds the content,methods,theoretical basis and technical route of this study,and lays the foundation for the research of the full text.(2)In the second chapter,a review of domestic and international research on Shrinking Cities is given to understand the current research contents and trends of shrinking cities both at home and abroad.Different from previous theoretical studies on domestic and overseas shrinking cities,the research innovation of this paper is that this is the first case study of forestry resource exhausted cities targeted at mathematical models.(3)The third chapter introduces the successful experiences of the sustainable development of forestry resources and the transformation of forest resources exhausted cities at home and abroad and the enlightenment to china.(4)The fourth chapter is on the contraction of city influence the establishment of index system and model of typical resource exhausted city of Yichun to study,analyses the influence of shrinkage using BP neural network,independent analysis by calculating the correlation coefficient of each index,and then through the method of information entropy of each index weight according to the distribution,independent analysis and the weight distribution index of index selection,to avoid the subjectivity of that screening index.The screened data is used as the input layer of the BP neural network,and the population change rate is used as the output layer to construct the neural network system,and the training neural network is trained by using the sample data.Curve,single index double index coupling graph and predicted by the trained neural network,according to the analysis conclusion,a detailed study of the status quo of shrinkage differences in different regions and cause these differences impact factors and future development trend.(5)In the last part of the article,the paper summarizes the contraction mechanism of forestry resource exhausted cities and puts forward the Countermeasures of Yichun's shrinkage control.With the depletion of forestry resources,the economic downturn in Yichun and the employment of forest enterprises have reduced,the population of high-quality personnel has decreased,while the young labor force has moved out.In the fifth chapter of this article,it analyzes the countermeasures and suggestions of Yichun's shrinkage management.The measures to improve the employment rate,improve the quality of life and increase the attractiveness of the city will be taken to achieve the control of the population contraction in Yichun. |