Analysis Of Chinese Population Prediction Based On The Population Birth Policy Change

The population problem is the important problem of the influence of human social political and economic development.China is one of the most populous countries in the word.The national have fewer with a population of more than 400 million people since the birth planning put forward in 1980.Effectively alleviate the population growth of the society,resource and environment pressure.At the same time,our country is faced with the natural population growth rate,low fertility,birth sex ratio increasing,and the decrease of labor force and the aging of population.In order to alleviate the above problems,the fertility policy transformed from the "one child" to “double only two-child”,“two-child” separately and “comprehensive two-child”,whether the fertility policy changed can alleviate the problem,is the key to this study.This paper introduces the evolution process of population fertility policy and the present situation of population development in China.Leslie population forecast model is set up based on the national population sampling survey data in 2014,estimate the parameters of fertility rate,mortality and birth sex ratio,analysis of the “comprehensive two-child” policy,the population of China from 2015 to 2050 and to predict the development of population quantity and structure.The results show that the policy of “comprehensive two-child” will not make the population explosive growth,but maintain a relatively stable level of development,ease the downward trend of labor force and aging to a certain extent.Finally,according to the above analysis,some policy suggestions are put forward to maintain the long-term equilibrium development of Chinese population.The innovation of this article: the first,multidisciplinary cross analysis.Multiple disciplines such as population,statistics and sociology analysis of the birth policy change under the development trend of the Chinese population quantity and structure.The second,theme is novel.Birth policy change is today's hot topic,has received the widespread attention of the society,the research of birth policy change on the influence of population quantity and structure has a good practical significance.