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A Comparative Study Of Time Series Forecasting Method In Population Forecast In China

Posted on:2018-07-01Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H H TangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2347330518981952Subject:Applied statistics
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In this paper,I make the population in our country as the research object.And take our country's total population at the end of each year from 1949 to2015 for example,we use time series analysis and statistical software Eviews to establish ARIMA(p,d,q)model,then predict the total number of people in the next few years,Same for 1995 to 2016,the proportion of elderly people a ged over 65 use Eviews ARIMA(p,d,q)model is set up,then predict the proportion of elderly people aged over 65 in the next few years.Finally,I predict the birth rate in the same way.After that,I analyze the results,the results reflect our country population is huge,and aging problem is serious,the national fertility desires downturn.Our country should take effective measures to control the rapid population growth,and to make the population age structure has a rea sonable distribution,so I give advices.
Keywords/Search Tags:ARIMA(p,d,q) model, Eviews software, Aging problem, Predict the total number of people, The birth rate, Make the population age structure has a reasonable distribution
PDF Full Text Request
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