The Influence Of Population Age Structure On The Demand For Housing

Since the commercialization of housing reform in 1998,the real estate industry has become a pillar industry of our country.However,at the same time,it is a necessary industry that ensures the people’s living standards.Rapid rise in housing price makes it hard for residents to ensure the basic housing needs.The contradiction of high housing price and basic housing needs has become a serious social problem.Why this kind of contradiction will appear?This is because house is a kind of special durable goods that has both consumption and investment.It is both consumption goods and investment goods.When investment of housing suppresses its consumption,the phenomenon of high housing price will appear.Therefore,the study of housing consumption and investment should be considered for.This paper is based on the characteristics of the housing.From the micro perspective of individual residents,we study his housing decisions in his life.We set a person’ life stage for the young,the middle-aged and the old.Meanwhile,considering China’s specific national conditions where parents will help their children buy a house,different generations of fertility should be brought into the study.Besides,since a person makes housing decisions at each period,each housing assets is different.By setting the OLG model,we finally get a conclusion that generation fertility has different effects on three phases of the demand for housing and the change of housing demand under different housing price expectation.Through the study of a person’s demand for house at different age,we explore the effect on the housing demand that the population of different age has.On the basis of it,we study the effect of population age structure change on housing demand.This paper first analyses the particularity of housing and describes the features of housing consumption demand and investment demand and its decision mechanism.Based on the characteristics of consumption demand and investment demand,we analyse the effect of population age structure on the demand for housing,and give an explanation:the difference of a person’s consumption and investment behavior at different life cycle phase makes the demand for housing different.Then,under the framework of OLG model,this paper further explores the influence of population age structure on housing demand.Under the different housing price expectation,we discuss the influence of residents’ fertility level and their parents’ fertility level on housing demand.Through comparative static analysis method,we study the influence of differences in generation fertility level on the changes of housing demand.Finally in this paper,through a combination of macro and micro data,we explore the effects of the young and middle-aged family ’s fertility level and their parents’fertility level on the demand for housing and the change of housing demand when the young family and middle-aged family translate to the middle-aged one and the old one with the method of multiple regression analysis.Research conclusions are as follows:In the process of transition to middle-aged family,the fertility level of young family will promote the demand for housing and the change of housing demand,and their parents’ fertility will decrease the demand for housing and the change of housing demand.Middle-aged family’s fertility level and their parents’ fertility level will decrease the demand for housing and the change of housing demand when middle-aged family translate to the old one.We give the rational explanation based on the conclusion of theoretical model.