| According to catastrophe bond pricing theory, this article starts from a risk management perspective, the risks associated with the production of agricultural catastrophe and the term structure of interest rate,and the sample of rubber yield data in Hainan Province from1992to2013is adopt for empirical analysis.Through the spline regression model and kernel density estimation method,as well as different variations and combinations of bond parameters, multi-year agricultural catastrophe risk bond prices are derived,and then designs the corresponding agricultural catastrophe bond products. The principal findings of the study are as follows:Currently, agricultural catastrophe bond is a important financial innovation and effective way in remedying China's agricultural losses resulted from major disasters; Agricultural catastrophe bonds issued implementation in China, the government, the insurance agent, SPV, farmers, professional intermediary service organization and so on all play a different and important role; In comparison of the long-term trend of several common measuring method and non-parametric estimation method,we discovered that the piecewise linear regression model (spline regression model) and kernel density estimation method is suitable for agricultural catastrophe loss distribution estimation; The design of agricultural catastrophe bond contract elements, necessary yields are negatively related with bond prices, triggering repayment rate value, the value and the bond price level is positive correlation.Therefore, our country agricultural catastrophe bonds issue needs the joint efforts of the society from all walks of life and to participate in, and in order to guarantee the successful implement of agricultural catastrophe bonds, improve the product's market appeal, debt contract elements and various parameters of the horizontal need according to the degree of investor risk appetite and behavioral characteristics to the corresponding design and rules. |
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