| Since 2003, the real estate industry has been become the national economy pillar industry. Also, the house price is soaring until recently. However the housing market has appeared bubble phenomenon. For the meantime, the monetary authorities establish a series of monetary policy to deal with. The transmission process and effect of the monetary policy are widely attention, and attracted a large number of studies.In this paper, we use the VAR model and H-infinity control model of two ways to research the transmission of monetary policy on real estate market. With the VAR model for the empirical research, this paper analyzed the transmission of monetary policy on real estate market from January 2003 to May 2003. Using eight variables of three kinds, we make use stationarity test, cointegration test, error correction, causality test, impulse analysis and forecasting. We can find that the transmission of monetary policy on real estate market exists, and it is effective. However, considering the instability of the economic system, the model error is inevitable. Then we put forward the robust control to error control and optimization. We discover the time-delay state feedback control gain coefficient as the optimal relationship of the real estate and between state and monetary policy with the robust control. Also, we expound on the basis of the empirical results: when the house price gets shock and imbalance due to system error, uncertainty disturbances or another uncertain cases, through the time-delay state feedback of the real estate supply and demand, by maintaining the monetary policy and real estate at the level of the feedback gain coefficient, robust control can minimize the impact of the shock and guarantee the stability of monetary policy's transmission on the real estate market. In addition, the transmission of monetary policy on the real estate market is diversity, complexity, differentiation, obsoleteness and controlled. |
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