Research On The Credit Risk Management Of Farmer Loans Of Rural Commercial Banks In Hu Bei Province Based On Probit Model

Rural finance is the core of the rural economy,and the development of it has always gained great importance since the reform of market economy in China.With the deepening of financial reform,and the successively withdraw of the state-owned banks from the rural market,the importance of rural commercial bank in the supply of rural financial service has become more and more apparent.Rural commercial bank has also played an irreplaceable role in supporting the farmer loans,promoting the development of “agriculture,countryside and farmers”,and stabilizing the rural economy.In recent years,however,the non-performing loans and non-performing loan ratio of rural commercial bank have continued to rise.Hubei province,as our country's agricultural province,the non-performing loans also face the serious situation.Farmer loans are facing a greater credit risk as the main loan object of rural commercial bank.Therefore,it has great theoretical and realistic significance to strengthen the credit risk management research on farmer loans of rural commercial bank in Hubei province.This thesis takes the credit risk of farmer loans of rural commercial bank in Hubei province as the research object under the guidance of the previous research and the theory of credit risk by using the integrated method of literature research,the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis,empirical analysis and field survey.This thesis analyzed the influence factors of the credit risk of farmer loans from three aspects: the basic characteristic of farmers,farm household wealth ownership and lending features.And then established the evaluation system of the risk factors,used the data of the S sub-branch of Zigui Rural Commercial Bank to construct the Probit Model,calculated the probability of default,and compared it with the reality performance which found that the model had certain effectiveness.The empirical results show that the significant factors are family labor number,total household assets,total liabilities and loan amount.Among that,the family labor number and total household assets have negative relationship with it;total household liabilities and loan amount have positive relationship with it;the farmers with children in college have bigger credit risk than the farmers with no children;the loans which are secured have bigger credit risk than which are not;the consumer loans have greater credit risk than the productive loans.Finally,in order to strengthen the credit risk management level of rural commercial bank in Hubei province,this thesis put forward the countermeasures against credit risk from the aspects of bank and government based on the empirical results.