Research On Prediction Model Of Enterprise Human Resource Demand

Human resource planning is the premise of human resource management,and the main method of human resources planning is carries on the human resources demand predict, scientific human resource demand predicted results can provide important scientific data for enterprise personnel planning and strategic decision, the management of human resources play an important role to achieve business goals better. And the scientific and reasonable predicted results based on the effective human resource demand prediction model.In recent years, many methods have been provided for the study of human resource demand forecasting, and different forecasting methods have their own advantages in the specific environment. Since the human resource needs is affected by many factors, among the factors exist high nonlinearity and uncertainty, as well as the enterprise human resources data incompleteness and inaccuracy and other characteristics, this paper chose the GM(1,1) model and BP artificial neural network prediction model as the predictive model. Grey prediction can carry on the data mining to the clutter data information, find out the internal rule, avoid the influence of uncertain factors. And this paper focuses on the GM(1, 1) model to improve its own defects, to broaden the scope of the GM(1, 1) model, make it more suitable for enterprise human resources demand predict. The BP artificial neural network model has the ability to imitate a variety of functions, and it converts the input and output of the sample into a nonlinear optimization problem. In this paper, the third chapter to build human resources demand forecast index system as the BP neural network input, the total number enterprise staff as the output, good solves the nonlinear characteristics between the influential factors of human resource needs. Secondly the BP neural networkhas a strong fault tolerance, so that the calculation process is more accurate. But GM(1,1) model and BP artificial neural network has its own applicable conditions, this paper according to the different requirements on sample data of both models, combination of them, constitute human resource demand prediction system based on enterprise real sample size.The construction of this prediction system can make the enterprise according to its own sample data obtained, select appropriate prediction methods,so that making the prediction process more flexible, and making the results more accurate, and makes an empirical analysis through the two companies. Aims to provide an more universally applicative, more flexible and more accurate prediction method of human resources.