Research On The Factors Of Performance Persistence Of Chinese Mutual Fund

Mutual fund performance persistence is the phenomenon that the performance in the past implies the performance in the next period. The fund with good(bad) performance will be good(bad) in the future. In the early 60's of last century, foreign scholars had started to pay attention to this phenomenon. Due to sampling, empirical methods and evaluation criteria are different, whether fund has performance persistence remains inconclusive, but most results of foreign scholars show that fund performance is persistent in a certain extent. After the rapid development in recent years, accompanied by an increase in China's household wealth and wealth management needs, China's fund industry has made a considerable development. Especially in recent years, the rapid development of private fund also provides more wealth management tools for the majority of investors. Facing more and more choice of fund, investors need an investment decision-making basis urgently, If investors can identify those funds that have better history performance and performance persistence, they can get excess earnings.In this thesis, the study take the sample of managed funds from Jan.2004 to Aug. 2014 to analyze the performance persistence in Chinese market.The result shows that different kinds of funds have dramatic difference on performance persistence. At the same time, this paper constructs panel logistic regression model to test the factors that may affect performance persistence, the result indicates that the market factors and the fund manager's stock selection ability significantly influence equity fund performance persistence, and the fund manager's timing ability is not significant. While all those factors not significantly influence the hybrid fund and fixed-income funds. Finally, based on the empirical results, the thesis puts forward some proposal on wealth management industry, and look ahead the future of wealth management in China.