The Recognition About Chinese Stock Bubbles Based On Time-varying Parameter Model

With the development of China's financial markets,as the core of China's financial markets,the stock market reform better than before.But there are also some problems,the main reason is the expansion and burst of the stock market bubbles.So the analysis of the stock market bubbles is important to improve the stock market.On the basis of the relevant literature and theory,the article firstly introduces the intrinsic value and the definition of the stock market bubbles.Then it analyzed the formation of the stock market bubbles by five factors.At the same time,the article introduced the related models of rational bubbles and irrational bubbles.Then through the time-varying parameter model of China's stock market bubbles,it measured and estimated the proportion of rational bubbles and irrational bubbles.Since 2008,the China's stock market is in line with the basic principle of stock price.But its self-regulation and restore ability remains to be improved.The proportion of irrational bubbles still large but gradually reduced.So the Chinese stock market is better than before but there are still some problems in it.Finally,the article is based on the status quo of China's stock market bubble,puts forward some relevant policy Suggestions.