Risk Measurement And Analysis Of P2P Listing Corporation

In recent years,with the development of economic globalization,the Internet finance that is a new product are thriving,and the P2 P online lending,one of the typical model of Internet finance,have been developing at a rapid pace.The P2 P online lending platform make up for the deficiency of the traditional model of bank credit and have the advantages of low cost operation,more portable transaction process,more human model,etc,so it has been quickly accepted by the majority of investors and borrowers.But at the same time,due to P2 P online lending has been developed in a short time in China,the domestic online lending development is not mature enough,in addition to the lack of regulation of domestic regulators to P2 P online lending,low entry barriers and weakness of credit system,the number of P2 P lending platform grow wildly and problem platform also gradually increased.The P2 P online lending have exposed lots of problems gradually and now it is facing various risks in loan,which cause the public attention to net loan security.It is an opportunity but also challenge.Facing this challenge,it is necessary for us to analyze the risks deeply Risk management is the core of the P2 P lending platform operation,so the effective management of P2 P online lending risk is crucial,however,risk measure is primary and is the core of risk management,in one word,it is of great significance for the development of P2 P industry in China to measure risk accurately.In this paper,I try to measure and analyze the risk of P2 P online lending by take Yirendai that is a listed company for an instance.This paper is divided into five parts,in the first part,background and significance,research status at home and abroad,the main contents and research methods are introduced.In chapter two,mainly,the current situation of the P2 P online lending industry development of our country are analyzed through some data,and the current existing risks of P2 P lending are summaried.The chapter three is theory concerned of the paper.I have elaborated the two methods of VaR and ES of risk measure respectively and introduced the ARCH model including the definition,the seting up and the test of the model.And the traditional extremum theory are introduced.In the fourth part,firstly,I have introduced the basic situation of Yirendai.Secondly,I have carried on the statistical analysis of the daily return sequence of Yirendai,and after the ARCH effect inspection to daily return sequence of Yirendai,the AR(2)~ARCH(1)model is builded.on the basis of the mean equation of the AR(2).Finally,the risk is measured and the value of VaR and ES of Yirendai is calculated based on the volatility of ARCH model,in addtion,then,the difference between VaR and ES is compared in different distribution and the traditional extremum theory is applied to the calculation of VaR.The last chapter is conclusion and recommendation.View of the problems existing in the P2 P online lending in China,some opinions and suggestions about how to avoid the risk of P2 P online lending effectively.and the further research on the basis of this paper are put forward.