Research On Free Cash Flow Forecasting Of Enterprise Valuation Based On SVM

In the method of enterprise valuation, the free cash flow discount method is the most mature. And the actual operation is relatively simple, gradually becoming the mainstream of modern enterprise valuation methods. Free cash flow discount method is mainly for valuating the enterprise of growing or maturing.The future of the enterprise free cash flow directly determines the value of the enterprise.And how to grasp the uncertainty of the forecast,building a more scientific and reasonable forecasting model of free cash flow, it has a decisive significance for more accurate valuation of enterprises. At present, there are more free cash flow forecasting methods, which are proportional to the forecast method(also known as the percentage of sales), time series forecasting method and regression analysis method. In addition, there are BP neural network, growth curve model, BNC and DKW model,probability technology. Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages, and its purpose is to improve the accuracy of free cash flow forecast, in order to more accurately predict the future earnings of the enterprise. Many enterprise's free cash flow forecast has the characteristics of less historical data, more influence factors, and nonlinear data. The existing forecasting methods can not solve the problem of small sample, nonlinear problem, but also avoid over learning or under study.It affects the accuracy of the prediction in a certain extent.In this paper, we first introduce the support vector machine method to study the free cash flow of enterprise valuation method. In order to not only solve the problem of small sample,nonlinear problem, bau also avoid the over learning or under study. Firstly this paper introduces the theory of enterprise valuation,free cash flow forecasting and support vector machine.Then based on support vector machine(SVM) the prediction applicability free cash flow of enterprise valuation are analyzed. Combined with free cash flow discount method of enterprise valuation mechanism and the existing problems of the existing forecasting methods,this paper analysis the advantages and feasibility of support vector machine predicting the free cash flow of enterprise valuation.Then on this basis, on the principle of faith can be operable,improving the estimation accuracy and reducing the cost evaluation,this paper design the scheme of free cash flow of enterprise valuation based on support vector machine(SVM).Finally, with the example of S hydropower station, using the design of support vector machine to predict the free cash flow business valuation scheme,analyzing the superiority, rationality and accuracy of the free cash flow of enterprise valuation design scheme based on support vector machine.