Economic Boom Degree, Enterprise Life Cycle, And Corporate Cash Flow Risk

Cash flow risk as a monitor to reflect the running status of enterprise cash is the enterprise production and operation and the material basis for the investment and financing activities, throughout the enterprise survival, become the key factors to the rise and fall of the enterprise. Enterprise's survival and development closely linked with the macroeconomic environment, the economic cycle fluctuation brings the change of the macroeconomic environment is bound to affect enterprise production and management, investment and financing decisions, destabilize the enterprise management activity, increased uncertainty in investment and financing activities, which leads to the abnormal fluctuation of the cash flow and the risk of the cash flow of the enterprise. This paper takes the tenth round of China's economic cycle as the research background, through the screening 596 A-share listed companies 8344 data for the study sample, Through the fixed effect model of panel data, the relationship and mechanism between macroeconomic cycle and corporate cash flow risk in 2000-2013 were examined. And on the basis of this, the paper adds the consideration of the enterprise life cycle to further explore the different life cycle of enterprise cash flow risk by different influence of macro-economic cycles. Empirically found:Overall speaking, the relationship between cash flow risk and the degree of macroeconomic prosperity is significantly negative. The more economic expansion, the higher the degree of economic prosperity, the smaller the risk of corporate cash flow. The more economic contraction, the lower the degree of economic prosperity, the greater the risk of corporate cash flow. After considering the life cycle of enterprises, it is found that the risk of cash flow is more significant in the growth period of the enterprise, which is followed by the decline period and the mature period. Enterprises in the growing period due to their own development faster, business activities and investment and financing activities, cash flow is more obvious by the impact of external environment, non-normal volatility more intense and the cash flow risk is affected by the economic cycle is more significant; And recession period enterprises are usually net cash users, rely on the meager operating cash flow to support the investment activities of enterprises, once the economic situation changes affect the company's business activities, business cash flow tend to produce greater volatility but the frequency and amount compared with the growth of enterprises are different. In addition, the mature period enterprise stable sufficient operating cash flow and its strong ability to resist external risks, make its cash flow risk of economic cycle fluctuations are relatively small.In this paper, we study the macroeconomic cycle on micro enterprise cash flow mechanism of the effect of the risk, and combination of enterprises in different life cycle of the cash flow characteristics to further explore the micro macro linkage effect, has strong theoretical and practical significance. It can help enterprises to grasp the law of development of the macro economy, and actively respond to changes in the economic situation, scientific and reasonable to take measures to identify the risk of cash flow, strengthen early warning and risk management.