The Statistical Modeling And Analysis Of Marketing Data

Marketing is all about the needs of consumers, thus when corporations are making decisions when organizing and managing marketing events, their most concern is always the consumer market. In the recent century, there has been a long process of evolution in guiding theory of western corpo-ration marketing management, where several concepts are generated, such as production concept, products concept, promotion concept, marketing concept, social marketing concept. Among them, marketing concept is most focus at market demand, so as to research how to meet these demands, while social marketing concept is the development and extending, thus both of them belong to modern marketing concept. As time passing by, competition is more brutal, market segmentation is speeding up, information system cost is reduced, thus new concepts of marketing emerge and get developed, where database marketing is undoubtedly the star. The very reason why database marketing became outstanding is that under a certain marketing budget, precise marketing is able to launch by offer the most appropriate product to the most appropriate audience at the most appropriate timing after employing database marketing.Customer segmentation is a core part of the precision marketing,which makes customer analysis become one of the core content of the theory of marketing research. In order to study customer segmentation^ is an important indicator that from the company's point of view to assess the profit contribution brought by customers-customer value.This paper uses three-stage model to assess customer value based on improving response rate for ACP marketing events as the business objective.The first step,predicting customer response rate to donating for the next half a year based on the logistic regression model.The second step,making the response rate weighted to the customer's profit, based on the forecast of the customer's response rate in the first step,then predicting the future profit contribution of different customers based on the multiple linear regression model. Using the decile analysis and lift chart to evaluate the model after the significance test is carried out.The third step,using the scores obtained from the three Model to do the cluster analysis of the crowd,based on the Acquisition Modek FirstGift Model and Retention Model. To analyze the characteristics of each crowd and the average points of each group at different stages of donation.Then we can conclude that in different stages of donation,making marketing activities to which crowd is more efficient.