Empirical Research On The Transmission Of The Real Estate Credit Risk On Commercial Bank

With the gradual marketization reform in our country,as well as the emergence of financial innovation tool,banks face increasingly complex credit risk.At the same time,along with the development of economy and the improvement of urbanization construction,rapid development of real estate industry develop rapidly,real estate prices rise sharply.The development of the real estate market in China is far from mature,there are a lot of irrationality,because the real estate industry developed rapidly under the policy and interests driven,which makes the real estate market relying on bank loans as the main sources of finance exists a huge potential credit risk.To study its impact on the commercial bank's credit risk, not only to provide a solid theoretical foundation for guarding against the risks caused by the real estate credit,but also has important practical implications for the commercial bank credit risk management.Based on the transmission of the the real estate credit risk on commercial bank as the breakthrough point,this paper study the macro transmission of real estate credit risk on commercial banks by constructing the pressure test and VAR model,and study the microscopic transmission of real estate credit risk on commercial banks by constructing the Logistic model and factor analysis.On the basis of the results of the analysis,we puts forward some suggestions of preventing real estate credit risk respectively.In this paper,the conclusions are:(1)macroeconomic fluctuations,national macroeconomic policies and the development of the real estate industry will affect the credit risk of commercial banks.(2)in extreme cases,such as real estate prices fall,slowing economic growth,the non-performing loans of commercial banks will be huge moves,and the more serious the extreme situation,the longer the NPL ratio increased amplitude and duration.(3) the effect of the financial indicators on bankruptcy probability of real estate enterprise is significant, the influence the financial factor get by factor analysis method on the probability of default for real estate enterprises are negative,the deterioration of financial indicators makes the bankruptcy probability of the real estate enterprise bankruptcy to rise, which affects the non-performing loans of commercial Banks.According to the conclusions,we presented decentralized real estate credit risk, strengthen commercial bank risk control and curb real estate investment demand from macro aspect,we presented strengthen the pre-loan management and post-lending management from for banks.These recommendations for the real estate industry and commercial banks to control risk provides a theoretical and practical reference.