Research On The Expectation Management Of Monetary Policy In China

Our country's economy has entered a stage of “new normal”, controlling inflation and keeping economic growth become two major goals of monetary policy in our country. But after academic discussion for many years, and more and more policy practice state that effective expectation management of monetary policy has a big significant on achieving the monetary policy goals. Under the background of "New Keynesian" and "New ClassicalMacroeconomics" coexisting, and the two theoretical system of state intervention and operating freely being closely linked, how to effectively combine these two theories to study on the expectations management of China's monetary policy is an important topic during current academic circles.First of all, based on the basic theory of expectation management and the "New Consensus" macroeconomic theory represented by "CGG" model, and combining with China's actual situation, this paper has newly introduced expectation management of monetary policy and quantity tool variables and deduced “New Consensus” macroeconomic correction model of China. And then, this paper has emphatically analyzed the status of the expectation management of China's monetary policy. Then, this paper has analyzed major problems existing in expectation management of monetary policy in China from several aspects.Among them, this paper has emphatically analyzed the feasibility of the implementation of inflation targeting system in China. On this basis, this paper has made empirical analysis on the problem of expectation management of monetary policy in China with the “New Consensus” macroeconomic correction model of China based on the actual status, and the main conclusions are drawn:(1) the expectation management target of monetary policy has a significant influence on the formation of expected inflation, the guide role of “nominal anchor” has not developed completely and the actual inflation is also an important trigger of the fluctuations in inflation expectations;(2) the problem of time inconsistency of China's monetary policy exists but is not significant;(3) the quantitative tool including M2 and the price tool including interest rate are the same direction control and linkage, among them,interest rate is strongly flexible;(4) China's monetary policy has taken the deviation of inflation expectation into account, but there is more room for maneuver, negative deviation is easy to induce inflation expectation traps during normal time;(5) the conclusion highlights the importance of the expectation management of monetary policy and the regulation direction, and put forward the policy recommendations correspondingly. Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.