The Study On The Impact Of The Interest Rate Term Structure On Monetary Policy

The term structure of interest rates is described in the same level of risk,at some point in time,the relationship between the zero coupon bonds of different maturities yield and the maturity. In an efficient market, from the micro level, the term structure of interest rates provide the benchmark interest rate system, help investors for the risk management;At the macro level, it is expected the market, closely linked with macroeconomic variables, can provide the forward-looking information for monetary authorities. Refers to the central bank monetary policy rules for monetary policy and operational guidelines.Among them, Mr. Meckler and Taylor rules is a widely used and effective rules, economy running smoothly for developed countries played a good effect, with the quickening pace of market-oriented interest rate reform in our country, Taylor rule will be able to better describe and characterize the state of our country’s monetary policy, the guidelines for the formulation and implementation of monetary policy in China.Therefore, under such a social background, study the term structure of interest rates influence on monetary policy rules, to develop more effective monetary policy is of great significance.Based on the related theory of term structure of interest rates and monetary policy rules, and the research on term structure of interest rates at home and abroad impact on monetary policy rules, and then on the basis of combining the reality of our country development present situation. To establish China’s term structure of interest rates and monetary policy rules, using data analysis and contrast analysis to research how our country of the term structure of interest rates affect monetary policy rules for quantitative and qualitative analysis. In order to explain the term structure of interest rates more intuitive influence on monetary policy rules, first we use N-S model to build China’s term structure of interest rates, and then use the VAR model to empirically the term structure of interest rates and inflation, the relationship between economic growth and interest rates, the results showed that the term structure of interest rates with macro economic forecast information; On this basis, then extracted from the term structure of interest rates in the short and long spreads into Taylor rule, following the introduction of expected by comparing the index changes of Taylor rule, found that the term structure of interest rates with expectations of information make the Taylor rule more optimization. This shows that China’s term structure of interest rates in monetary policy rules really does have an impact, so as to achieve the empirical test, and further put forward the corresponding policy recommendations according to the results of the empirical.