The Research On Energy Rebound Effect In Jiangsu Province's Policy About Resource Conservation And Emission-reduction

China's economic growth has brought large cost of the energy and environment in a long time,environmental problems have become more and more serious because of the sustained high growth of energy consumption.Since recent years,although policy about resource conservation and emission-reduction has become the focus of Chinese government,the environmental pollution,with haze and other air pollution as a representative,has seriously affected people's lives and even health.As our country has put more emphasis on energy conservation,is energy-saving emission reduction policy really effective,that's a question.Based on questions above and existing researches,this paper raises the following issues:(1)How is the current energy saving status like;(2)Does the consumption of energy can be control by increasing the efficiency of energy usage,in other word,do the rebound effect really exist in China.(3)If the rebound effect really exist,which factors affect the rebound effect and how to avoid it.Around three questions above,this paper's research approach contains three parts:(1)In order to answer the first question,this paper set Jiangsu Province as the research object and evaluate the effects of energy conservation policy by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the entropy method;(2)According to endogenous growth theory with the three elements of Cobb-Douglas production function,this paper estimates the value of the rebound effect of Jiangsu Province in recent 15 years in order to reflect the impact of the rebound effect to energy conservation;(3)Analyze the main factors that affect the rebound effect by OLS regression and promote relevant policy recommendations based on the results.The evaluation results from the energy saving effect estimates show that,in recent years,the energy saving performance of Jiangsu Province steadily improved until it reach the best level in 2013,but since 2013 Jiangsu Province energy saving effect is not very satisfactory,since "the Eleventh five-year plan" achieved excellent results,energy saving entered a tackling and key stage.Calculation results means,with the implementation of Jiangsu Province energy conservation policy,short-term rebound effect is steady declining,weak rebound effect is diminishing from less than 50%,effect of energy-saving is very significant.But in the long rebound effect Overall,the value of the year were higher than the corresponding short-term rebound effect,and are larger than 50%,it indicate that in the long term,there is a strong rebound effect in Jiangsu Province,it failed to achieve majority potential energy-saving efficiency in energy savings.It still has a large energy saving space.By constructing a time series model which impact of long-term rebound effect,this paper selects three factors including the proportion of coal in total energy consumption et al,and the model can be fitting with good results.Especially,the proportion of second industries in GDP and the proportion of coal in total energy consumption were positively correlated with the long-term rebound effect,investment in industrial pollution control and long-term rebound effect was weak negative correlation.According to the results above,this paper provides some corresponding suggestions from two aspects: avoid rebound effect and surpass the rebound effect such as proportion of coal consumption,proportion of second industry and investment of pollution preventions.Avoid rebound effect suggestions contains taking implementing the reform on energy pricing mechanisms and subsidy ways,eliminating the pollution intensive and energy-extensive industries and using traditional energy clean;We should catch up the new trend of renewable energy and support the industry of the new energy to surpass the rebound effect.