Empirical Analysis Of RMB Internal And External Imbalances After The Exchange Rate Reform

Since 2005, RMB exchange rate since 2008 on May 7 to 6.10 in October 2013 for the first time since mark earn foreign exchange to high and rising of RMB exchange rate; And since March 2007, China's inflation rate more than 3% of benign inflation, highest when more than 5%, inflation has been maintained at a higher level. The internal and external value appeared economic phenomenon with the general economic theory.John Maynard Keynes (Keynes) as a reference based on this, this paper, such as Milton Friedman (Friedman) economists study, on the basis of analyses the value of the yuan against economics. Specific content as follows:1, analysis domestic price index in 2005-2015 and general performance of the real effective exchange rate:2, the internal and external value of the renminbi, the deviation and potential influence factors are analyzed; 3, on the basis of theoretical research, data analysis through the establishment of the VAR multivariate regression model, using impulse response at the same time, variance decomposition, granger causality test, analyzes the influence factors of the internal and external value imbalances.In this paper, through the establishment of vector autoregressive model, using the impulse response and variance decomposition, glen causality test method of combining the internal and external value of the renminbi general phenomenon and reasons are analyzed. The study found that:1, the internal and external value imbalances phenomenon do exist, and this kind of economic phenomenon with the general economic theory, the internal and external value imbalances is an abnormal economic phenomenon in the development of Chinese economy.2, as can be seen from the impulse response, the imbalance of internal and external value lies in the transmission mechanism of the incomplete and asymmetry, expedite the exchange rate transmission mechanism of monetary policy has important significance for maintaining the value of the yuan stability; 3, can be seen through variance decomposition, foreign exchange reserves is not only a big contribution for the RMB exchange rate, as a result, foreign exchange reserves have a great effect for stable value of the yuan; 4, exchange rate changes will affect the change of domestic purchasing power, and in turn, this kind of influence is very small, so by changing the domestic inflation influence exchange rates, to achieve this effect should be much to be desired.According to the general conclusion on the empirical analysis, this paper suggests that China should control the reasonable scale of foreign exchange, adhere to market-oriented renminbi internationalization and liberalization of interest rate marketization and RMB exchange rate direction of financial reform, improve the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate system, promote the balance of the internal and external value.