Research On The Prevention Of Systematic Risk Of Commercial Bank's Financial Products

The financial products of our country's commercial bank has developed rapidly over China, and the scale is also expanding increasingly.as an important part of shadow banking, commercial bank's financial products has a huge influence on the systemic risk of the banking system in our country, the study that the commercial bank's financial products impact on the China's banking systemic and even the entire financial system has important reference and value.Now lots of researches on the systemic risk that brought by the commercial bank's financial products are some qualitative analysis, and researches based on the application of statistical models and tools of empirical study is still relatively small. First of all, it is that commercial bank's financial products affect the banking systemic risk analysis of the mechanism, and more than, it analysis that how do the bank's financial products affect the banking systemic risk in theory, and feature of this effect.Secondly, this paper get listed banks in China during five years as the study sample. From the previous research result and also the descriptive statistics, this paper choose variables from three directions, then choose 6 index. Using the commercial bank's financial products data from 2010 to 2014, it introduces 2 dummy variables in the fixed-effect regression model. Through the analysis of this model, it prove that the existence of the systemic risk and it measure the size of the influence degree.Finally, the author of the study in accordance with the results of empirical analysis give some recommendations about how to supervise the systemic risk that may be caused by commercial bank's financial products. According the statistical analysis of the study, the result show that there are three most important factors that lead to systemic risk. They are the term mismatch risk, the yields mismatch risk and the rapid development of the non-standard financial business correlate to investment of the commercial bank's financial products. There existing real and serious risk resource in bank financial market, in order to prevent the risk, on one hand, the regulators should control and supervise this factors by statistical analysis and empirical analysis; on the other hand, the commercial banks must transform the traditional profit model on their own initiative.There has three innovation of this paper. First, it's the innovative research methods. This paper reference to the principle of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), trying to find a quantitative measure of risk by the ? coefficient and establish a fixed effects model. Secondly, it's the uniqueness of the data source. In this paper, the data is from the PYWM. Thirdly, it's the innovation of the methods which measure the systemic risk of commercial bank's financial products. This paper no longer confine the risk qualitatively, but on basis of theoretical analysis by using quantitative data measured. It proves the existence of systemic risk of commercial bank's financial products, and analyzes the factors that triggered risk.