Financial Systemic Risk Probability Factors Increase Or Decrease Of The Early Warning And Prevention Research

Systemic risk is the essential characteristics of overflow and infection, especially in the financial system of the natural vulnerability, the probability of crisis is quite high, and other parts of the economy crisis also may accumulate and systemic risk in the financial sector. This paper intends to study systemic risk probability increase or decrease of early warning indicators, and according to the empirical model conclusion regulatory Suggestions.This paper reviews domestic and foreign literature about measures to prevent systemic risk formation influencing factors and regulation, the theoretical research and empirical research at home and abroad were reviewed and the general description, and explains their advantages and disadvantages. Then, based on the global systemic risk incidents since 1990 as the research object, using the international panel data as explanatory variables, using logit systemic risk assessment model was constructed. Logit model to measure the probability of the events in accordance with defined in this paper, we study the systemic risks. Studies have shown that the logit model is the key to the design of the control variables and group study, to study the influencing factors of increase or decrease the probability of systemic risk. Financial system increase or decrease the occurrence probability of systemic risk has both inside and outside factors, the basic economic factors of external and internal financial structure and development status, therefore, this article explain variables are divided into macroeconomic and financial variables. Thus, this article will macroeconomic factors, the degree of financial development, financial scale and efficiency into the logit model analysis, the proposed model analysis the following problems: 1, validation, systemic risk of early warning indicators;2, research, macro-economic factors, the degree of financial development, financial indicators such as size effect on the occurrence probability of systemic risk increase or decrease. Through model analysis, the following conclusions: when the macroeconomic weak, systemic risk probability would increase; As the financial development degree and degree of liberalization, a country's financial fragility has become increasingly apparent. Specifically, in the macroeconomic indicators, the rise of inflation can increase the incidence of systemic risk; Per capita GDP increases to slow the probability of occurrence of systemic risk is more significant, but the per capita GDP growth rate rising too fast and unstable signal instead of the probability of occurrence of a risk increases, while the coefficient is low; Interest rates, exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, current-account deficit per capita and per capita increased systemic risk probability is inversely proportional to, with the role of foreign exchange reserves and current account deficit per capita per capita largest, strongest robustness, happening probability of systemic risk was significant predictor of reduced. Financial development index and the index of financial structure, in addition to the bank characteristic indexes, rising the remaining variables can predict systemic risk probability increase, of which the financial efficiency index coefficient is larger.Thus, along with the continuous development of the financial, the expansion of scale, the degree of liberalization and the increase of the credit, increase the possibility of systemic risk occurs, but does not represent needed to contain the financial crisis grows to deepen and widely. From regulators from the perspective of macro prudence and micro individual, regulation of the global financial system structural adjustment and clear. Macro regulatory measures in the process of financial development and deepening can reduce systemic risk, from a macro prudential supervision and regulation of microcosmic individual perspective, mainly represented by the global LEI system with Basel carries on the analysis, this paper does not inhibit financial development under the premise of transparency and financial system stability, and reduce the occurrence probability of systemic risk.