The Reaearch On Nolinear Dynamical Characteristics In Chinese Peer-To-Peer Lending Marke

P2P network lending is a personal direct credit model which is gradually emerging in recent years.Net loan companies set up the two sides of the loan transaction through online platform.The platform itself plays the role of information intermediary,providing services of information disclosure,credit rating,fund settlement,overdue collection and so on.The main source of profit of the platform is the customers' brokerage.P2 P network lending in China is developing very rapidly.It appears to fill the gap in the small loan market.According to the net loan home statistics,up to the end of October 2015,China's P2 P network lending platform reached a total of 3598;the cumulative turnover of the history of the past finally exceeded one trillion RMB mark,reaching 1 trillion and 98 billion 349 million RMB.In October 2015,P2 P networks lending industry comprehensive income rate is 12.38%;the average loan period is 6.78 months.It is expected that the 2015 P2 P network lending industry average loan period will be hovering at around 7 months.However,in the past few years,there is a sharp rise in the number of P2 P problem platform.As of October 2015 the total amount has reached 1078,absconding,out of business and difficulty in extracting cash are the major sources of problems.It is thus obvious that the reality of the P2 P network lending market is not simple,orderly.It is both chaotic and complex.The intensity and frequency of P2 P network lending risk is much greater than that in our theory.The complexity of risk is far from pure random walk.The Participation of multiple elements,variable relationship,internal causation and diversity,strong coupling characteristics of the P2 P lending market determine that the system is often in a nonlinear way to respond to external action.In this context,the in-depth analysis of the nonlinear dynamics of the P2 P network lending market will provide a new perspective for the study of the essential characteristics and risk management of the P2 P network lending market.Therefore,this paper collected four daily trading index time series which mainly reflect the whole picture of the P2 P network lending industry,to preliminarily explore the P2 P network lending market nonlinear dynamic characteristics.Used the ROR method to process China P2 P network lending index time series smoothly,thus the time series suitable for further research are obtained.Through using BDS nonlinear test method,this paper carried out the empirical analysis of nonlinear Chinese P2 P lending market dependence.The result shows that there is significant nonlinear dependence structure,and its nonlinear structure may be derived from low dimensional chaotic process;further,through using the classical R/S analysis and modified R/S an alysis method this paper carried out the empirical analysis of whether there were long memory characteristics in Chinese P2 P network lending time series.The result shows that the generation process of Chinese P2 P net loan time series is not independent and random.There is a large number of nonlinear,but the result doesn't show long memory characteristics.Comprehensive judgment,the development of the history and evolution of the degree of the P2 P network lending market is still shallow.It is in the transition from a simple linear system to complex giant system.Finally,combined with theoretical and empirical analysis,we give relevant recommendations.