Parameter Estimation And Optimization Control Of Infectious Disease Models

With the constant development of economy,the contact and exchange between people of various countries are increasing day by day,Dissemination on a global scale offers favorable conditions.For a short time infectious diseases can quickly spread,in addition to understand the reasons for their dissemination,channels,it also wanted to know its development trend and the influence and control of the external media and medical resources on its transmission so that effective measures can be taken by the government health department slow down its speed of transmission and strive to achieve the desired control objectives with better and even optimal results。Therefore,based on the classical epidemic model,this paper considers the infectious disease mod-el with the characteristics of age of infection,and uses the maximum likelihood method and the Bayes method to estimate the stochastic epidemic model The parameters were estimated and analyzed in terms of how to allocate resources under the condition of limited medical resources to maximize the control of disease and make full use of re-sources。This paper consists of four parts:In the first chapter,we briefly summarize the background and present research of the infectious disease model,introduce some nota-tions,definitions and useful lemmas which related to the study of this paper.The second chapter compares the difference between the deterministic model and the stochastic model。The third part estimates the parameters under different conditions based on the SIR model with age of onset。The fourth section describes how to achieve optimal control of the disease under limited medical resources。...