Research And Practice On Dam Deformation Observation Of Tongziyu Hydropower Station

As the great development of hydroelectric energy in China, more and more dams and high dams are established. Dams are always set in complex situations, and accidents may be caused by the adverse effect of many unknown factors during the operatingprocess of dams. Therefore, It is necessary to monitor the deformation of the dam, using the original monitoring data to analysis the deformation law of dams, analyzing the relationship between each effect size of dam and the corresponding influential quantity, then acquiring the operating state and evolution trend of the dams, and discovering the abnormal factors that influence the operate safety of dams devotes larges significance to the researches on social-economic welfare and even science field.So far, the skill to acquire the monitoring data of the dams has reached a mature level, the modeling analysis of the monitoring data has been developing and other analytical models also have developed to certain level. On the basis of the skill of deformation monitoring technology and the systematic study on the analytical model of deformation monitoring data, this paper, taking the Navigation-power junction project at TongZiHao for instance, illustratesthe way how to monitor the dam deformation and the process to deal with the monitoring data and analyze the data, and carries out the study by the comparison analysis of a few classical statistical analysis models.The paper consists of the following sections:(1) According to the literatures about big dam deformation monitoring, it is systematically concludedways to monitor dam deformation and the analytical method of deformation monitoring data, and the development trend as well as the advantages and disadvantages of each methodare list out by comparison analysis.(2) The principles of classical monitoring statistical analysis models on dam deformation are deeply studied, which include the multiple linear regression model, stepwise regression model, partial least squares regression model, time series analysis model, grey system analysis model, Kalman filtering model and artificial neural network model.(3) Taking the Navigation-power junction project at TongZiHao for instance, the monitoring and implementation plan on external deformation of dam are determined. The reliability of plan has also beentaken into consideration. Then by the analysis of the three-period data acquired from monitoring horizon displacement datum network and vertical displacement datum network of the Navigation-power junction project at TongZiHao and by comparison of the annual relative change amount and difference of each point, it is ascertained whether the datum point gets stability. Meanwhile, the data from preliminary dispose of the monitoring results is used to get the time displacement process diagram. Then on the further analysis of deformation state of dam and variation of deflection,it is documented that the tangential deflection of right bank is a bit larger than that of left bank and deflection variation is highly related to variation of water level.(4) The predictive parsing of Navigation-power junction project at TongZiHao carries out by practical statistical models, which contain the multiple linear regression analysis model, stepwise regression analysis model, partial least squares regression analysis model. These three models play an important role in analyzing the correlation among dam water level, temperature, time effect and deformation of monitoring point. In this part, it is acquired that the dam temperature level is highly correlated with dam deformation.(5) The last part consists of the comparison and discussion of the statistical modelsabout analyzing monitoring data. The accuracy and adaptability of model is tested by comparing the results of the three models:the multiple linear regression model, stepwise regression model, partial least squares regression model.It is on the basis of the classical statistical analysis methods of dam deformation monitoring data, further analyzing the deformation law of dam that this paper gives advice on how to choose dam deformation monitoring method and the way to discover dam deformation law.