Design And Analysis Of Short-term Investment Strategies Based On Investor Sentiment Measurement

This article is mainly on investor sentiment indicators to build the research train of thought of development,the construction of public opinion analysis into the sentiment index process.Using public data,please review,adopt the method of segmentation rate built a directly reflects the main direct investor sentiment index;And use the available on the market the market turnover rate,p/e ratio,volatility and new accounts,investor confidence and consumer confidence data,through the principal component analysis(PAC)built a preliminary indirect indicators,to side reflect the fluctuation of the market sentiment,supplement sentiment indicators directly;To cut out the macroeconomic factors could have on the interference,is a comprehensive indicator.Based on the measure methods of investor sentiment index,this paper designed a simplified short-term investment strategy,determined by the threshold search suitable sentiment index upper and lower threshold,introducing MRS model prediction for investor sentiment index,is based on the actual value of the sentiment index combining forecasting result sets trigger condition for buying and selling points,and combined with trigger n days before buying stocks accumulated excess returns by stock portfolio.Market back to the test results show the design index significantly outperform the investment strategies of market performance,this article also the feasibility of investment strategy,risk and possible problems are analyzed,in view of the problems in the program design is optimized in this paper,this article research is also given of further improvement direction.Finally the article points out that based on the technology of investment strategy is liberation of auxiliary method of human labor,cannot completely eliminate the investment risks,still need to the third party role for its continuous track optimization,timely adjust optimization according to the market change.