Analysis And Forecast Of Talent Development In Yunnan Province

After 60 years' founding of new Chinese,especially the 30 years' reform and opening up,China has experienced a relative scarcity of human resources development and has become a national talent resources country,during which all kinds of talents display skills to the full,for example in the reform and opening up and socialist modernization construction.Following the pace of talent development in Yunnan Province,entering the stage of talent development strategy,the total amount of talents of Yunnan Province,through the efforts of the past few years and steady growth,continuously improve the quality of personnel structure,continuously improve the development environment,in order to further enhance the efficiency of talents,.It provides strong talents to guarantee the intellectual support for the scientific development of Yunnan leapfrog and harmonious development.In the 12 th Five-Year planning,the province will have the total amount of human resources targeting more than 3 million 882 thousand and 800 people.As at the end of 2014,the total body of human resources reached a total number of 4 million 21 thousand and 500 people,which has made great achievements.The 13 th Five-Year plan,Yunnan province will continue to implementing the strategy of talent development,according to the current development trend of the total human resources,in order to understand the total human resources in the future two years' development in Yunnan province,to optimize the allocation of human resources and to eliminate barriers to provide reference for the flow of talent etc..This paper mainly consists of the following five parts: the first part is the introduction,mainly on the significance of this study,research background,research content and methods are discussed.The second part is the literature review,the research results related to human resources,including the analysis of the domestic and foreign scholars,some related concepts and theories.The third part is about the talent resources;developmental status of Yunnan province,including the longitudinal analysis and horizontal comparison combined with the specific presentation of Yunnan province in recent years of talent development achievements and the status quo,with a full of talents in Yunnan province's first stage of regional development.The fourth part is data collection and model to determine.The corrected coefficient of determination is obtained by using SPSS software to determine,mainly including the five variables of high coefficient of selected model,through 6 years in Yunnan.The provincial total personnel statistical data are accurately reached by using the existing statistical data.It also uses the regression method,the missing data in 2008 and 2009,the total personnel to fill,as far as possible to get more information,providing more samples for the following forecast.The fifth part makes use of GM(1,1)model to predict the selected variable data in 2016 and 2017,and then establishes the forecasting model of BP neural network by using variable data prediction and related historical data,the total amount of talent demand in Yunnan province in the next two years.And in order to provide reference for the government and the society,the paper also provides some help to promote the rational flow of talent resources and distribution.In the end,this paper puts forward some suggestions for the problems and provides some valuable suggestions.