Research On Evaluation And Control Of Debt Risks In Local Government Financing Platform

Since the 2008 financial crisis sweeping the globe, the China government adopted the measures of 4 trillion investment to stimulate the economic, local governments at all levels have set up investment and financing platform company, in order to dock the construction of project and integrate the project funds.Since then, the local government financing platform have gone to the stage on a large scale, making incomparable contributions for the local government to carry out the construction of infrastructure better. In the process of China city, the local government financing platform take the responsibility that the government should take, such as serving as the whole industry chain role of project financing, construction and operation of the various stages of the main body. Of course, the local government financing platform plays an important role, but, with the increasing number of financing platform and the financing scale, the fiscal funds guarantee of government debt also increases, the pressure of financial reimbursement bank credit continues to strengthen, and the debt risk of local government financing platform is already to brook with no delay point.In this paper, we use economics, system science, risk management, structure equation theory and the related theory, take the method of literature research, theoretical research and practical research, model analysis, empirical analysis and so on, consider the debt risks of local government financing platform. This paper starts with the influence factors of the local government financing platform debt risk---environment factors and internal factors, the internal factors include the ability to stand the risk, operating ability and the ability to bear the platform of government debt. Discussing the formation and evolution of debt financing platform risk, and using the system dynamics SD model to simulate the evolution of debt risk. The evaluation for debt financing platform risk is from the point of view of using, borrowing, returning, identify the financing platform of the government debt risk from three dimensions, namely the use of financing risk, capital risk and prepayment risk. This paper adopts the form of the questionnaire, using structure equation theory, to verify the reliability index system of debt risk. Using the screening model of rough set to get the risk evaluation index system of optimization. And using the combination of Delphi Method(Delphi method) and AHP Method(analytic hierarchy process Method) to streamline the weights of the risk assessment index. Finally, using expert evaluation Method to score on indicators factors, doing the quantitative analysis of government financing platform company debt risk. This paper is based on the evaluation of debt and simulation, each node in the risk is the main line, from the three aspects—the risk control system of organization structure, the law and policy, information platform construction, to establish the control system of debt financing platform risk and propose control strategy. That is, to develop specific standard financing scale line scheme, using “the double proportional control law” restrictions on land guarantee scale, and from the “independence of assets, independent organization, administrative independence” to improve platform self-control, taking the way of supervision by the financing partly wholly or partly engaged. Finally, taking Wuhan City as an example, selecting Wuhan’s investment and financing Platform Co, doing the debt risk assessment on it respectively, according the data to do the risk analysis, and using the SD model to simulate the future overall development trend of Wuhan City financing platform debt risk. And put forward the control suggestions of Wuhan City financing platform debt risk combination on the foundation of the two.