Study In The Course Of Main High Way Operations Of Risk By ANNs

At present, the state adopts the model of government and social capital and social capital investment in full of the construction of the profit-making highway, a franchise. The key period of toll highway management to reform transition..Highway project itself has a long operating cycle, the large initial investment, long payback period and other characteristics, in recent years, with the constant changes in its operating environment, operational risk is more and more big highway project faced, caused by the main behavior risk possible economic loss also increases, ensure the realization of objectives of the project of expressway operation more difficulties, the risk decision-making is more complex, how to objectively, efficiently of subjects' behavior to the highway project operation risk evaluation system has gradually become a hot issue of academic study.In view of this, this paper based on the related literature at home and abroad system analysis of expressway project operation main behavior risk on the expressway, combined with the operation management theory, risk management theory and the related concept of the behavior of the comprehensive evaluation system theory, defines the connotation of expressway project operation main body behavior and characteristics, further comparative analysis of the characteristics of different system, comprehensive evaluation methods the content and advantages and disadvantages, demonstrates the feasibility and applicability of the comprehensive evaluation method of artificial neural network and expressway project operation main behavior risk evaluation. This paper from the elements of behavior subject of operation risk analysis of highway, from the behavior of the government, the operating company internal behavior, customer behavior and market competition and so on four aspects, the operation of the main highway construction behavior risk index system, and the index connotation in detail, the corresponding calculation method of index values are given; and put forward the theoretical system of the highway operation risk evaluation based on BP neural network, and carries on the empirical analysis of XJ highway project; finally, considering that BP neural network is difficult to accurately analyze the performance index of the neural network faults, by using sensitivity analysis method for analyzing the factors influencing the degree of expressway project operation main behavior risk evaluation index on the evaluation results, the suggestions and measures for highway project better put operation.Artificial neural network model for operation of the main highway behavior risk evaluation of the established, with a high degree of accuracy, the main behavior risk in the sample of the expressway project operation, the result of the relative error is below 10-3. BP neural network has unique advantages to solve the operation of the main highway behavior risk assessment of such highly nonlinear problems, the effective technical means for risk evaluation of expressway project operation of the main body behavior, behavior risk management for the enterprise to the highway project operation to provide effective decision support.