Research On The Pricing Of Housing Reverse Mortgage Loan

According to the China National Bureau of statistics,the relevant data,by the end of 2015,the number of Chinese elderly people over the age of 60 or more about of the total population,about 13.3%of the total population.Around the big cities widowed elderly households accounted for about 70%of the,the number of the elderly retired and life can not take care of themselves is probably 31.71 million people.And with the arrival of the global aging,China's pension market need to pay more attention to.Traditional Chinese mode of providing for the aged is mainly and that the child support,or is on pensions,old-age social security payments assistance,rarely have other ways of pension model.The housing reverse mortgage loan is refers to the elderly through will have their own mortgage loans to financial institutions,then loans from financial institutions according to the mode of payment will be the amount of payment to the elderly,so as to ensure the demand for cash in the life of the elderly,this through the housing property to protect the elderly living standards of the new pension model,this model is also known as the housing endowment or reverse mortgage.So it is meaningful to study the pricing and risk analysis of reverse mortgage of housing.The reasonable and effective pricing is the key to the successful implementation of the reverse mortgage,therefore,the research of pricing is the key of reverse mortgage product research,this paper is composed of three factors(interest rates,house prices,life table)of interest rates and housing prices fluctuation obeys the CIR model,using the actual data rates and prices the estimation of the parameters of the model and calculate the correlation coefficient between them;secondly,under the assumption of uniform in the death of the life table of monthly conversion in line with the required monthly life table;at last,using the Monte Carlo method of normal copula and t-copula function based on the simulation of two models obtained by reverse mortgage actuarial pricing model pricing,one-time payment mode and monthly annuity payment loan mode required to pay the amount.This paper compares the simulation results of three representative cities(Beijing,Wuhan,Guiyang).calculation shows that:the amount of payment will change with the magnitude of the price fluctuations,the greater the volatility,the amount of payment will be relatively large.In addition,this paper discusses the changes in the amount of payment and risk under different correlation coefficient.Research shows that:with the increase of the correlation coefficient,the amount of payment will become smaller and smaller,but the range of change is not;the risk is smaller and smaller.It is worth noting that the normal copula and t-copula function on the amount of the payment is not obvious.The above research results provide help and reference for the smooth development of housing reverse mortgage loan institutions.