The Research On Risk Management Of P2P Lending Platforms Based On Stress Testing

P2P network lending is a business model which gathers a small amount of idle funds to provide for people who have financial needs.With the development of the Internet and the rise of private lending,P2P network lending has gradually become a development trend of financial services.Along with Internet banking being written in 13th five year plan and the continuous improvement of social cognition of P2P industry,it will present a promising situation of standard advancement in the future.Nevertheless,with the impact of macroeconomic going downward and the real economy running unsteadily,overdue payments or default events unceasingly happened and the credit risk of P2P network lending industry increased.Therefore,it puts forward higher requirements for the risk management ability of P2P platform.Policy risks and credit risks are our major risks in the process of P2P platform.Policy risk is related to the establishment and operation,while credit risk is related to the sustainable development of the industry.At the present stage of our country,for one thing,due to specific regulations haven't yet been implemented,the tightness of regulatory policy will have a decisive influence on the establishment of the platform and compliance operations.For another,China's economy demonstrates the characteristics of growth shifting and multiple contradictory under the new normal.The stagnant real economy has easily led to a rise in overdue rate,affecting the investors' confidence in P2P industry.This condition has brought a huge challenge to the stable operation of the platform.Under the dual pressures of the policy and the market,how P2P industry adjusts its business strategies to meet regulatory requirements and what kind of evaluation system it builds up to adapt to the risk management under the new normal,are worth our research.On the basis of the reference of the domestic and foreign study,Part one,the paper firstly describes the concept and effect of the stress testing.And then expounds the outlook description method and sensitivity analysis method from the operational level.Finally,the paper points the processes and principles of the stress testing.Part two,the paper first of all reviews the history of P2P lending and carries an analysis on the development status of P2P lending in recent years.Secondly,through the summaries of business types which P2P lending is involved in,the paper obtains the business scopes of mainstream platforms.Finally,the paper compares different safeguards which are extracted from the domestic platforms,and analyzes the advantages and weaknesses.Part three,according to the open details of regulatory policy,the paper uses the outlook description method to build up the policy risk scene.Through the qualitative judgement from the quantities of platforms,volume,registrar and balance of loans,the paper judges the influence of risk factors on the P2P lending.Part four,based on the time-series data between 2008 and 2015,the paper uses Wilson Model and select GDP growth rate,CPI growth rate,M2 growth rate,CERCI and Shibor overnight rate as explanatory variables.For explanatory variables,the paper adopts the overdue rate of P2P lending,which is optimized by logarithmic.Finally,the paper uses stepwise-method to gain the stress testing model of credit risk and sets three different kinds of scenes to implement stress testing.In this paper,the operation of the P2P platform mainly faces policy and credit risks.In terms of policy risks,if implemented more stringent regulatory measures,P2P industry will suffer severe impacts.In the window period before the implementation of the policy,the P2P platform should be started from the aspects of registered capital,leverage ratio and funds trusteeship,etc,and strive to meet the regulatory requirements of the authority.And in terms of credit risks,except that the P2P platform overdue rate is not sensitive to Shibor overnight rate,the other macroeconomic variables all have significant effects on it,especially CERCI.In the scenario of macroeconomic environment deteriorating,the P2P platform will rise significantly,which proves that the platform project is dragged down by real economy depression and has difficulties in funds flow and the abortion,leading to the platform faced with huge repayment pressure.Even though the P2P platform is designed as an information intermediary and it can't provide the commitment to cash,however,a platform without any safeguards can not obtain investors' trusts in the actual market environment.In this paper,corresponding policy suggestions are also given.