Use Empirical Methods To Study The Effect Of Price Change On Urban Residents' Consumption

Since the 1980 s, the change of stock price and housing price to the market economy of the country's macroeconomic conditions and the influence of consumer spending more and more obvious, which attracted the attention of economists. Especially since 1998, when the housing market reform in China, the real estate industry has become an important industry of the national economy, development become the expanded domestic demand, promote the important engine of economic growth. At the same time, in recent years our country urban residents consumption level instead of downward trend in fluctuation. According to international experience, countries such as Britain and America's housing prices are improved in different degree of consumption. Foreign studies concluded that most of the literature, after eliminating the influence of the income changes in consumer spending, housing prices to the urban residents' consumer spending is real estate wealth effect. Foreign researchers on the study of the relationship between housing prices and consumer spending has made great progress, initially with theory analysis, now more into the empirical test; From the development of a country to study each country's real estate wealth effect under different financial system; From a single consumer groups to study different age groups. The research ideas and methods for the research of the urban residents' consumption problem provides a good reference object, we can according to the international research train of thought, combining the actual situation of our country, it can be concluded that in our country real estate wealth effect and the relationship between the consumer spending and impact.Choose the basis of this thesis is mainly because of, at present, research on housing price affect the residents' consumption in China are mostly focused on just consider housing price on the effect of consumer, the distance between the domestic related research and the international multi-dimensional research still keep a big gap, this paper introduces the life cycle- permanent income hypothesis, the liquidity constraint hypothesis and the precautionary savings theory. Through this several theory viewpoint and house price fluctuations in consumption of urban residents' consumption affect the way of introduction, we can realize the principle of asset price fluctuations impact on residents' consumption. At the empirical level, give full consideration to the financial system, population age structure and consumer prices are expected to promote the role of market main body speculative demand, establish the commercial house average sales price change impact on urban residents' consumption expenditure panel regression model.This article is based on empirical methods and 35 large and medium cities in China in 2005-2012 annual panel data, the empirical test shows that every 1% increase in housing prices, consumer spending will increase by 0.0627%, there is an obvious positive real estate wealth effect in China. However, through the analysis of the contrast model equations, and the following conclusions:(1) Considering the current financial system of our country, every 1% increase in housing prices, urban residents' consumer spending will increase by 0.0121%;(2) considering the current situation of urban population age structure in China, every 1% increase in housing prices, the overall consumer spending will increase 0.0635% of urban residents, but the proportion of young people, every 1% increase in consumer spending would fall by 0.0530%.(3) under the condition of considering the prices are expected to urban residents, every 1% increase in housing prices, urban residents' consumer spending will increase by 0.0364%. The three conclusions that:(1) the current financial system in our country is in a lower level, the financial system can not give full play to the financial promoting effect of real estate wealth effect, on the contrary, urban residents will also because cannot effectively through mortgage housing loans, only by increasing the savings to buy homes, which dampened residents' spending.(2) the more young people, The possibility of more to offset the positive wealth effect on consumption of real estate(because Most of young people have no homes, housing prices continue to rise, makes them more saving for future purchase), but the whole, are the real estate wealth effect, but also higher than does not consider the situation of the population age structure(0.0635% > 0.0627%), suggests that the current in the elderly is given priority to, most of them have housing, rising house prices, with increasing wealth and increasing consumption. It also conforms to our country the status quo of aging stage;(3) city dwellers generally bullish prices, but house prices will increase their spending level(property management fees, housing decoration fees later), and a growing number of income earners pay housing consumption has the pressure, so most people choose to reduce spending to meet the increasing spending on housing, characterized by urban residents overall consumer spending rate is lower than without considering prices are expected to 0.0364%(< 0.0627%), it also illustrates the current price is not reasonable, lead to more and more city residents feel pressure obviously, it is necessary to control housing prices. At the end of the article, the conclusion summarizes and analyzes the causes of these conclusions in detail, and full play to the real estate wealth effect is suggested by the author's suggestions.